Analysis: Why this year’s lackluster QB market could lead to Sam Darnold’s departure from the Vikings

INDIANAPOLIS - The number of NFL teams looking for a starting quarterback this offseason outnumbers proven starters expected to be available.

And college quarterbacks in this NFL draft aren’t generating anywhere near the excitement as last year, when an NFL record-tying six passers were selected in the first round.

That should be music to current Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold’s ears.

It may not be good news for a Vikings front office looking to frugally acquire — or reacquire if it’s Darnold or Daniel Jones — a veteran insurance policy to pair with first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy next season.

The Vikings got one of the best deals in football last year, when Darnold threw for 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns while making $10 million on a one-year deal. He’ll no longer be a bargain for whichever team acquires him.

Will the Vikings value him that highly?

That question makes the franchise tag, with a Tuesday deadline and price of over $40 million, an unlikely path for them. Another hurdle: If the Vikings wanted to tag and trade Darnold, it would require his approval since he could refuse to sign the tag or a new contract elsewhere.

Vikings General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said the team’s internal evaluation of Darnold has been “tough” after a marvelous season ended with him taking 11 sacks over two blowout losses to the Lions and Rams.

“I was telling my staff,” Adofo-Mensah said, “if I could have thought of a brainteaser, of an experiment to think through, that would have been a pretty tough one. You know, Pro Bowl quarterback, win all those games and then lose to two teams twice. And so that was really kind of the core of our offseason, really thinking through that holistically, not trying to be overweighted by those eight quarters but not to underweight those last two games.

“He played a lot of good football for us,” Adofo-Mensah added. “Year 1 in the system, so you can expect more later. And so we’re excited the potential for Sam, whatever that ends up being. But, you know, it’s a tough exercise, but I want to make sure that we’re continuing to say: We’re so proud of what he did for us.”

The Vikings' bargain option this time around might be the new reclamation project in Jones, a first-round pick of the Giants who spent six weeks in Minnesota after requesting his release in New York.

“Daniel is somebody we wanted to bring in for that reason,” Adofo-Mensah said. “Just to learn about him, see what he would be like when he’s in our building, in our culture. He is a great option for us. And again, like the other options we have, we’ll think about him and go forward.”

Darnold, turning 28 years old in June, is the top veteran quarterback available in a market that otherwise has only aging starters — Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston — and reclamation projects like Jones, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Carson Wentz, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance.

Here’s a look at the quarterback market from the NFL scouting combine:

The Tennessee Titans hold the No. 1 overall pick in April, and new General Manager Mike Borgonzi isn’t against adding both veteran and rookie passers to remake their quarterback room. If they desire one of the draft’s top passers, such as Miami’s Cam Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, they’ll prioritize pairing him with a veteran in free agency, Borgonzi said.

The Titans have only quarterback Will Levis under contract for next season.

“You have to get that right,” said Borgonzi, a former longtime Chiefs scout. “We have to solidify that position. And we have Will on the roster right now, and he’s going to compete with whoever we bring in.”

The Raiders started three different passers — Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder — during a 4-13 season. And Las Vegas' new minority owner, Tom Brady, has already been very involved in trying to change that.

“He’s a very curious person,” first-year Raiders General Manager John Spytek said. “He just kind of wants to know what’s going on now that the Super Bowl has ended and he has a little bit more time. He certainly has thoughts, which I appreciate. I’d be some kind of idiot if I didn’t listen.”

Brady reportedly met with Stafford last weekend at his Montana home. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the NFL issued a statement Thursday saying there’s no tampering at play because the Rams “gave the player and his agent permission” to speak with the Raiders. Stafford, 37, reportedly wants a raise if he’s going to stay in L.A.

“[Brady] is available every day,” first-year Raiders head coach Pete Carroll said. “He consults with us and he’s really tuned in to what’s happening.”

Should Stafford be traded elsewhere, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s former stomping grounds in L.A. could be a landing spot for Darnold. Rams head coach Sean McVay and General Manager Les Snead do not attend the combine, but McVay addressed the situation this week on the “Fitz & Whit” podcast.

“There’s layers to it,” McVay said. “You have to be able to say, ‘Hey, how do we continuously build? How do we support [Stafford]? How do we make sure that he’s getting what is his worth relative to those things?' So, at the end of the day, we had something in mind, he had something in mind, and nobody was right or wrong. And then ultimately you’re saying there’s a ton of interest because this guy is an incredible player.”

The Rams, like the Vikings, make football sense for Darnold, a native of Southern California, because of their playbook similarities and talented rosters.

The Steelers have been rumored to be interested in Stafford, too, while both of their starters from last season, Wilson and Fields, are scheduled to be free agents. Steelers General Manager Omar Khan tried to quash the Stafford idea.

“There’s a lot of fake news out there,” Khan said.

But Khan didn’t run from the obvious: Pittsburgh needs better play from the starting passer after a 10-3 start ended with five straight losses last season. The Steelers seem to believe Wilson or Fields can improve, but neither has signed a new deal.

“Ideally we’d like to keep one of the guys we had with us last year,” Khan said, “but until — we don’t have anyone under contract — so until that happens, all options are on the table.”

Darnold isn’t going back to the Jets, another QB-needy team that drafted him No. 3 overall in 2018 out of USC.

But would he consider going back to New York? Because the Giants are among the most desperate teams that need immediate improvement at quarterback to bolster the job security of General Manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll.

Schoen admitted that in an ideal world the Giants, with the No. 3 overall pick, would draft the next franchise passer. But is there a franchise quarterback in this year’s draft?

“I don’t know if one of those guys are going to be there or if there’s one in this draft,” Schoen said. “We’re still going through that process. In theory, yeah, you take the rookie quarterback, they’re on the rookie deal for five years.”

If the Giants don’t fall for one of the draft’s passers, they could be shelling out for another quarterback three years after they paid Jones $40 million annually after his only playoff win (against the Vikings in 2022).

“We made some decisions after that first year when we won,” Schoen said, “and it didn’t work out.”