Analysis: ‘Running backs matter,’ boasts Vikings’ Aaron Jones, as NFL sees rising rushing numbers

Aaron Jones was conducting his weekly news conference when he saw an opening, took it and, per usual, made the most of it.

He was being fed rushing stats to illustrate how his pass-happy league hasn’t been this productive running the ball in 34 years. A running back in a world obsessed with quarterbacks and receivers, he smiled.

“So I can make my stand for running backs now?” he asked the reporter.

By all means.

“Running backs matter; you heard it here first,” said Jones, looking directly into the cameras, flashing his golden smile, and using his best commercial pitch-man voice.

Running backs — and, to be fair, running quarterbacks and jet-sweeping receivers — have mattered more through nine games than at any other point this century.

Teams have combined to average 245.1 yards rushing per game, the highest through nine weeks since 1990. The 4.49 average per carry is the second-highest through nine weeks ever, trailing only 2022 (4.54).

“The NFL gets trendy,” left guard Blake Brandel said. “There’s probably a multitude of reasons why. All I know is I love it. I want to be able to run the rock. We’ve taken that focus into games this year, and it’s been awesome to see.”

The Vikings were born in 1961. Last year was one of their worst rushing efforts ever. Their seven rushing touchdowns tied 1996 and 1962 for the fewest in a non-strike year. Their 393 carries were the seventh fewest. Their 1,553 yards were the eighth fewest.

Enter Jones, a special back the Packers gave up on because he’s set to turn 30 on Dec. 2. He’s breathed speed, power and instincts into what was a lifeless part of Kevin O’Connell’s play-calling.

Through eight games a year ago, the Vikings had 586 yards rushing, a 3.55-yard average per carry and a league-worst 73.3 yards per game. This year, the Vikings have 913 yards on 217 carries to rank 21st in average per carry (4.2) and per game (114.1).

Six NFL teams are averaging more than 150 yards rushing per game: Baltimore (182.6), Philadelphia (174.8), Washington (163.9), San Francisco (159.0), Green Bay (154.8) and Detroit (152.6). The Ravens averaged 191.9 through the entire 2020 season and 204.8 the year before, but only one other team topped 150 yards per game in each of those seasons.

“I feel like every couple of years the game changes just a little bit based off what maybe the defense is giving you,” Jones said.

What defenses are giving offenses right now is an industrial-strength dose of two-high safety looks. Jones, an eight-year veteran, said he’s noticed an increase in quarterbacks checking out of passes and into runs rather than vice versa.

Brandel said, essentially, Hallelujah!

“If everyone is playing two-high, then you just want to hand the ball off,” he said. “There’s more open lanes to block. It’s basic math at that point.”

Most things in the NFL are cyclical. What’s going on this year is part of the cat-and-mouse game the two sides of the ball have been waging since the forward pass was legalized in 1906, 14 years before the NFL was born.

“Things get hot for a few years,” safety Harrison Smith said. “Teams spread you out. Defenses adjust. That opens back up some run options. Defenses will then try to get bigger. Back and forth. Back and forth.”

The Vikings ran the ball 36.7% of the time last season. This year, that number is up to 46.4%. They’d be wise to keep that trending upward at Jacksonville on Sunday. The 2-7 Jaguars gave up 407 yards and four touchdowns on 85 carries (4.8) in losses to the Packers and Eagles the past two weeks.

Jones said he’s ready. And always willing.

“I’ve never had this load before, but it’s something I like,” he said. “I welcome it.”

Jones is playing 64% of the offensive snaps, which would be a career high if he sustains that pace. He played a career-high 62% with the Packers in 2019 — one of only two seasons in which he played every game — and finished with career highs of 285 scrimmage touches for 1,558 yards (5.5) and a league-high 19 touchdowns.

His current pace: 321 touches for 1,721 yards (5.4) and nine touchdowns.

“I don’t know exactly why running the ball [is up], but I’m happy that it is,” Jones said before turning back to the cameras with a smile and that twinkle in his eyes.

“Running backs,” he said, “are here to stay.”