Vikings-Seahawks prediction: Tight NFC playoff race is front and center in Seattle

After beating the Bears for their seventh straight win and pulling into a tie for the NFC North lead, the Vikings will try to remain in control of their own destiny as they look for their first win in Seattle since 2006. They’ll see a Seahawks team that’s also tied for the lead in its division, in the first of three matchups to close the regular season against teams the Vikings could face again in the playoffs.

Here’s a look at what to watch in the Vikings’ matchup with the Seahawks on Sunday:

Division title is within reach, if Vikings can handle tough schedule: By winning their final three games, the Vikings would guarantee themselves the NFC North title, and would have a good chance to claim home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. To do so, though, they’ll have to win two of their next three on the road, while facing a surging Packers team at home on Dec. 29. Seattle is tied for the NFC West lead at 8-6, and will be playing with a sense of urgency after losing to Green Bay last week. If the Vikings can handle the final stretch of their schedule, any questions about the strength of their victories should disappear.

Seattle pass rush presents a challenge: The Vikings might not have to deal with Leonard Williams, the veteran defensive tackle who leads the Seahawks in sacks (with seven) but is dealing with a foot injury. But Seattle has the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate, with first-round pick Byron Murphy II lining up in the middle of their defensive line and 2023 second-round pick Derick Hall coming off the edge in nickel situations. Former Gophers linebacker Boye Mafe plays in more of the Seahawks’ base packages, and is one of five Seahawks players who’s created pressures on more than 10% of his snaps, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Coach Mike Macdonald’s blitz scheme is similar to the Ravens’ defense, freeing lots of unblocked rushers through creative pressure paths. The Vikings have struggled with blitz pickups this season; their running backs will have to be in sync with their linemen Sunday.

Vikings could lean on Jones: Running back Aaron Jones is just 21 carries away from a career high in attempts for a season, and it’s possible he’ll get all 21 of those carries against the Seahawks, who rank 22nd in the NFL in rush success rate and 25th in yards per attempt allowed. Jones had 106 yards from scrimmage against the Bears on Monday night, and figures to be a focal point of the Vikings’ offense again on Sunday, especially if Williams isn’t there to affect the middle of the line.

Seahawks have a productive passing game — if it’s healthy: Quarterback Geno Smith appears on track to play after leaving Sunday’s game against the Packers with a knee injury, while wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss a day of practice. If the Seahawks have everyone on Sunday, though, they’ll test a Vikings secondary that should get Stephon Gilmore back but won’t have as much depth with Fabian Moreau out. Second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the team with 85 catches, while the 6-foot-4 Metcalf presents a matchup challenge and steady veteran Tyler Lockett remans a reliable slot receiver at age 32.

Walker has to work for his yards: Running back Kenneth Walker III (5-foot-9, 211 pounds) is an elusive target, but he’s had to be this season; he’s gained only 68 of his 542 yards before contact this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and hasn’t averaged more than four yards per carry in a game since Oct. 20. He missed practice on Wednesday with a calf injury; the Vikings’ run defense has struggled in recent weeks, but Walker will likely have to force missed tackles if the Vikings can defeat blocks up front.

The Vikings have struggled more in Seattle than any other NFC venue, and things aren’t likely to be easy for them in a trip to the West Coast at the end of a short week. The Seahawks’ three-receiver sets will challenge the Vikings’ secondary if Seattle can protect Smith, and the Vikings will have to protect Sam Darnold against Macdonald’s complex pressure looks. But the Vikings are healthier than the Seahawks, and if they can give Darnold time, he should be able to pick on Seattle’s secondary, while Jones helps the Vikings control the game. It’ll be tight, but we’ll give it to the Vikings by a Will Reichard field goal. Vikings 23, Seahawks 20

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