You, as a Vikings fan, might call it stone hands. Or butterfingers, on a different note. In the end, though, you might just say the Vikings got what they deserved.
But an NFL data scientist would paint a different picture of the 2023 Vikings: They have been extremely unlucky through a 2-4 start — easily the least lucky team in the NFL when four metrics are combined (and even, in many cases, when they are not).
It's sort of a fancy and intriguing way to quantify the concept of "Football Gods" that Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse — my guest on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast — so often talks about.
They certainly smiled on the Gophers on Saturday in their 12-10 win over Iowa, though an overturned punt return for a touchdown — an out of left field call that feels like it would have gone against the Gophers in 99% of all simulations, regardless of whether it was technically correct — would not make it into Tom Bliss' calculation of luck.
Bliss, an NFL data scientist, sorts luck into four quantifiable categories: interceptions dropped by an opponent; passes dropped by an opponent; field goals and extra points made or missed by an opponent; and fumble recoveries by either team.
The idea is that there are elements both random and out of a team's control in each, and the degree to which they work for or against a team — impacting their win probability along the way — gives you a good measure of their luck or lack thereof.
The Vikings this year, through six games? They astoundingly are dead last in win probability added in three of the four individual metrics: opponent dropped interceptions, opponent dropped passes and fumble recoveries. They're seventh-worst in opponent kicking.
Add it up and their win probability has decreased by 133.5% by the four luck factors through six games. The next-worst team is at 88.7%.
