Wild leader Bill Guerin enjoys the success and identifies the challenge: ‘We can’t waver from this.’

Before the season, Bill Guerin would have never pegged a Monday night matchup in November between the Winnipeg Jets and the Wild as the top team in the NHL squaring off against its second-place challenger.

“It’s exciting,” the Wild’s president of hockey operations said just before the opening faceoff at Xcel Energy Center. “It’s great.”

The anticipation was legit: Kirill Kaprizov returned from a one-game injury absence. Goaltenders Filip Gustavsson and Connor Hellebuyck brought identical statistics into their respective creases, and the Wild had made plenty of strides since narrowly losing to Winnipeg in overtime with an understaffed lineup in the third game of the season.

This rematch warranted the spotlight, and the Wild believe the 1 vs. 2 battle lived up to the hype even if the score didn’t.

“As players, we were into it from the drop of the puck,” defenseman Jake Middleton said.

Despite a ferocious start in which they seriously challenged the Jets, the Wild were the first to blink during a second-period staring contest and Winnipeg ran away 4-1 to pad its lead atop the standings.

Hellebuyck was brilliant, denying 43 of a season-high 44 shots by the Wild, whose expected goals total was 4.6, meaning Hellebuyck saved 3.6 goals (MoneyPuck).

That gave him an NHL-leading 2.06 goals-against average and .929 save percentage after he and Gustavsson (2.18 and .923) entered the game tied in both categories.

“We wanted to get the upper hand [Monday] and show that we can play with everyone,” veteran forward Marcus Johansson said. “Even though we did show that, we didn’t get the two points. We didn’t get the win, and that’s frustrating.”

A quarter of the way through the season, the Wild (13-4-4) are at a unique crossroads.

By still being a top-five team, they’ve proved their performance is more than simply a good start. Instead, this is their potential, but they have to keep fulfilling it.

How?

“It’s mental,” Guerin said. “It’s all mental. The belief that you are this good and don’t waver from this. We can’t waver from this.”

As one of only two teams that haven’t lost back-to-back games in regulation, the Wild are competitive.

They’ve typically won the games they should, and their success seems sustainable because of how in-sync they look in coach John Hynes’ system that has them operating as a five-man unit all over the ice.

“The coaches have really helped the guys,” Guerin said. “Our players have matured. They’ve been through a lot over the last few years. It thickens your skin. You learn. I also think they’re seeing results of playing a certain way, playing a certain style, so we just have to continue it.”

What would validate the Wild even more is finally defeating a Winnipeg, Dallas or Colorado.

Not including the playoffs, the Wild haven’t won against the Central Division’s reigning top three teams since March 29, 2023. Their latest loss to the Jets was their seventh in a row against them.

“You get up for this game,” winger Matt Boldy said. “It’s a division game. It’s a team that’s ahead of us that’s had our number. We want to win every game; it doesn’t matter who is first.

“That’s a good team over there, and we gotta find a way to get going and find ways to win these games.”

The X-factor in any game the Wild are in is, of course, Kaprizov.

He was held pointless by Winnipeg for just the fourth time this season, the winger’s 34 points just one behind Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon and Carolina’s Martin Necas for the NHL lead.

Kaprizov didn’t play Saturday in the 4-3 shootout loss at Calgary after a knee-on-knee hit from Edmonton’s Drake Caggiula two days earlier, and although Kaprizov is good to go, Guerin wasn’t sure what was going to happen with the Wild’s superstar.

“He’s a tough kid. He plays through a lot, but I didn’t like the hit and I didn’t like anything about it. No penalty. Marcus Foligno got kicked out of a playoff game for a hit just like it,” said Guerin, referring to Foligno’s game misconduct for kneeing Radek Faksa in Game 5 vs. the Dallas Stars two seasons ago. “I don’t care about suspensions. The league will handle that. They do a great job, but you know what? We should have gotten something, and I just worry about his health. I just want him healthy.”

The early frontrunner for the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s MVP, Kaprizov is the player who has most impressed Guerin to start the season.

Mats Zuccarello isn’t active yet and is still week-to-week after getting hit by a shot from Brock Faber on Nov. 14 and having surgery, but Kaprizov’s momentum hasn’t stalled without his longtime linemate.

“He’s just taken his game to a whole new level,” Guerin said, “and I think it’s more than just his game. The leadership, and he knows his responsibility and things like that. So, he’s really elevated himself. He’s been great. It’s been fun to watch him.”

With Kaprizov setting the tone, optimism about the Wild is justified.

But there are 61 games to go, beginning Wednesday night at Buffalo, and the Wild still have to show who they are — not who they’ve been.

“It’s not just the system,” Guerin said. “It’s the belief and the carrying out of it.”

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Sabres update: Buffalo (11-9-1) has been idle since sweeping a West Coast trip last week. The Sabres shut out the Los Angeles Kings, defeated the Anaheim Ducks in overtime and then spoiled the San Jose Sharks’ jersey retirement night for Joe Thornton. This is their third three-game winning streak, a season high. Former Wild F Alex Tuch leads Buffalo in scoring with 21 points. LW Jason Zucker, another onetime Wild player, has five goals and nine assists in his first season with the Sabres.

Injuries: Wild LW Jakub Lauko (lower body) didn’t play in the third period of Monday’s game. C Marat Khusnutdinov (lower body) is day-to-day. RW Mats Zuccarello (lower body) is out. Sabres LW Jordan Greenway (middle body), C Tage Thompson (lower body) and D Mattias Samuelsson (lower body) are on injured reserve.