Wild find that math is their least favorite subject in NHL playoff race

Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t crunched the numbers to figure out what it’ll take for the Wild to make the playoffs.

“I haven’t got that far yet,” the goaltender said.

If he did, the math would show the Wild still in contention but needing help from the out-of-town scoreboard.

They’re nine points back of Vegas for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference with 11 games to go, a push to the finish line that restarts Thursday against San Jose at Xcel Energy Center after the Wild had four days off.

“We’re going to try our best, try to win,” Fleury said, “[and] see what happens.”

While the Wild were idle after dropping two in a row, the Golden Knights played three times and picked up five out a possible six points to extend their lead for the final wild-card berth.

What will it take for the Wild to bridge the gap?

That depends on how successful Vegas is the rest of the way.

The Wild are at 77 points, so the most they can finish with is 99. At 86 points, the Golden Knights need another 14 to reach 100 and become impossible to catch. But based on its 39-25-8 record, Vegas is on pace to get to approximately 98 points.

To eclipse that, the Wild would have to run the table.

(If necessary, the tiebreaker goes to the team with the most regulation wins.)

Sign up for our Wild Update newsletter

NHL standings

Obviously, the Golden Knights have to stumble for the Wild to even have a chance to gain ground, and the reigning Stanley Cup champions have been a ho-hum 10-10-2 since the All-Star break. Should Vegas repeat the 6-3-1 showing it had over its past 10 games over its final 10 games, the Golden Knights will get to 99 points.

But if they revert to the 2-7-1 output from their previous 10-game segment, they’ll barely exceed 90.

Upping the intrigue are the two head-to-head matchups between the Wild and Vegas.

After the Wild host the Golden Knights Saturday, they’ll play April 12 in Las Vegas. The Wild won the first meeting of the season 5-3 on Feb. 12.

Still, this isn’t a two-team race.

St. Louis is also in the mix, with the Blues three points ahead of the Wild and six shy of the Golden Knights. They won’t square off against the Wild or Vegas in their last 10 games, but they have a favorable schedule.

Only four of St. Louis’ remaining opponents are in a playoff position compared to five for the Golden Knights and six for the Wild. But the Wild have just as many games as the Blues have vs. the bottom-five at four.

Before their showdown with Vegas, the Wild will face one of those lottery teams in the Sharks.

Coach John Hynes said “signs are pointing toward” center Joel Eriksson Ek and defenseman Jonas Brodin returning from injury after both practiced again Wednesday. That would elevate the Wild to full strength minus captain Jared Spurgeon, who’s out for the season with hip and back issues, and the timing couldn’t be better to ice their best-available lineup.

For any of these calculations to matter, the Wild can’t keep losing.

“We want to make playoffs,” rookie defenseman Brock Faber said. “We gotta win a lot of games coming up here. I think we’re focused. We kind of reset there. It was a good two days of practice and getting back after it [Thursday] with must-win games coming up.”