Minnesota's political future has already happened in two other states

Opinion editor's note: Star Tribune Opinion publishes a mix of national and local commentaries online and in print each day. (To contribute, click here.) This article is a response to Star Tribune Opinion's June 4 call for submissions on the question: "Where does Minnesota go from here?"

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What is the future path of Minnesota's politics? A sound prediction is that it will resemble that of other northern-tier states with similar demographics, election histories and election systems. Two places emerge as likely predictors: Washington and Oregon.

The two northwestern states share a key demographic similarity with Minnesota that is of great electoral consequence: all have large populations of both white and college-educated residents.

The 2020 census tells the tale, with Minnesota 77.5% white, Oregon 74.8% and Washington 66.6%, compared to the nation's white population share of 61.6%. Also in that census, 33.7% of Americans had bachelor's degrees, but in Minnesota, it was 37.6%; in Washington, 37.3% and in Oregon, 35%.

The political implications? Nationally, highly educated whites have steadily trended toward Democrats. A nationwide 2022 New York Times survey found them preferring Democrats over Republicans by a whopping 20-point margin. In Minnesota, KSTP/SurveyUSA polling consistently shows stronger support for the DFL and its officeholders among college graduates than among less-educated voters.

An examination of Washington and Oregon's recent electoral histories gives us clues about Minnesota's future path. No Republican has won the governorship of Washington since 1980 or has occupied Oregon's governorship since the end of 1986.

Republicans last controlled the Washington state Senate at the end of 2018 and the state House as 1998 concluded. In Oregon, Democrats have controlled the state Senate since 2003 and the state House since 2007. Democrats have held both U.S. Senate seats, most U.S. House seats and most statewide offices in both states over the last decade.

Is Minnesota headed in this direction? Over the past 10 years, partisan control of our state legislative chambers has moved back and forth between both parties, with the majority party usually holding a narrow advantage as the DFL now does in both chambers. Yet Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006, and Democrats have held both U.S. Senate seats since 2009.

Only a small electoral shift would give Minnesota Washington- and Oregon-style Democratic dominance. The DFL Legislature, in a series of partisan changes to the state's election system, has provided that nudge toward electoral supremacy.

Among these changes are legalizing felon voting, 16-year-old voter registration, automatic voter registration upon driver license renewal, recreational marijuana and making "major party" status for marijuana parties more difficult. All give the DFL enhanced opportunities to win more votes.

After Oregon (in 2000) and Washington (in 2011) adopted mail-in voting for all citizens, the states voted strongly Democratic. Minnesota Democrats moved state law in this direction as well.

Previously, Minnesotans could ask for an absentee ballot application to arrive at their homes each election cycle. The new law removes the application step, allowing them to choose to have an absentee ballot automatically sent to their home prior to the election.

So if Minnesota is now headed in the direction of Washington and Oregon, what challenges might the North Star State confront? Some important Minnesota difficulties are already evident in Washington and Oregon. Portland, Seattle and the Twin Cities have seen rising crime and urban unrest in recent years. Antifa has made downtown Portland a war zone.

The far left has grown in all three cities. Seattle has elected an outspoken socialist to its City Council. Minneapolis has three socialists on its City Council, and socialists just won three DFL endorsements for upcoming City Council races.

This leftward movement has increased political polarization in Oregon and Washington. Both states have active secession movements based in rural, conservative areas. This year, Oregon state Senate Republicans staged a walkout to prevent the majority Democrats from enacting controversial legislation.

Will this come to Minnesota? Bet on it. As in Oregon and Washington, the ruling Democrats will face further challenges from their far left. This will increase polarization in our state, probably sparking a secession movement in greater Minnesota and even a breakdown of state legislative business due to Republican walkouts.

Expect greater political conflict and division in Minnesota, and it will occur as Democrats dominate the state's electoral politics.

Steven Schier is the Emeritus Congdon Professor of Political Science at Carleton College in Northfield.