Minor (Nuisance) Snow Events Into Friday

Little stormy swirls keep breaking off the big storm stalled over the Pacific Northwest that dropped heavy snow on Seattle. One such disturbance may spark a snowy coating in the metro Wednesday, with the heaviest streak setting up north of MSP; maybe 2-4" for the Alexandria and Brainerd Lakes area. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

December 6, 2022 at 3:30AM
(@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Milder December Temps Closer To Home

Here's the 850mb temp anomaly through the weekend, which shows a fairly mild stretch of weather across the Upper Midwest as we approach the 2nd weekend of December. Meanwhile, colder than average weather will set up in the Western US.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through The Weekend (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through mid month. Note that temps could warm into the low/mid 30s and we approach the weekend, which will be a little warmer than average for this time of the year.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Through The Weekend

The extended weather outlook through the first full week of December looks fairly quiet, but there will be some minor accumulations across parts of the state midweek. Weather conditions could be a little more active late week and into the weekend. Stay tuned...

Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows minor precipitation amounts across the state. There won't be a ton of precipitation over the next 5 to 7 days, but some of this could be in the form of snow and minor snow accumulations.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, December 6th, which looks a little chillier than average with temps only warming into the mid/upper 20s. There will be more sunshine than there was on Monday.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will be cooler than average by nearly -5F to -10F. There will also be areas of snow across the northern half of the state with minor accumulations possible.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minor Snow Potential Through Midweek

The simulated radar through midday Wednesday shows light snow potential across the northern part of the state on Tuesday and another light snow chance on Wednesday. With both of these light snow chances, there could be some minor accumulations across parts of the state, especially up north.

Simulated Radar Through Midday Wednesday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Light Snow Accumulations

Here's the snowfall potential through Wednesday, which shows minor accumulations, especially up north of around 1" to 3".

Snowfall Potential Through Wednesday (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Tuesday will be chilly to start in the morning with readings in the low/mid teens. High temps late in the day will be in the mid/upper 20s, which will be a little below average for this time of the year. Southerly winds will be a little breezy through the day with gusts approaching 15mph at times, especially in the afternoon.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps will start in the single digits in the morning, but will warm to around 20F by the afternoon. It'll still be plenty chilly, so bundle up if you're planning on being out and about.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is nearly nearly -9.45" below average for the year, which is the 18th driest start to any year on record (through December 4th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.34"above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis cooler than average temperatures continuing into the first full week of December. The chilliest day will be Sunday when the high struggles to get to 20F. However, there will be a warming trend as we approach the weekend with highs getting back into the 30s.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows chillier than average temperatures in place through the week ahead. We'll be quite a bit warmer by the weekend with highs warming into the mid/upper 30s.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedicitx/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the middle part of December. It'll be chilly through midweek, but it'll be mildly warmer as we approaching the weekend.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across much of the Western US as we approach mid month. Warmer than average temps will be in place across the Northeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minor (Nuisance) Snow Events Into Friday
By Paul Douglas

Good news: Minnesota meteorologists will be at a rare and merciful lack for words this week. No snowy migraines or painful polar punches in sight. I'm grateful for relatively quiet weather as we approach the Winter Solstice on December 21. It won't last.

Little stormy swirls keep breaking off the big storm stalled over the Pacific Northwest that dropped heavy snow on Seattle. One such disturbance may spark a snowy coating in the metro Wednesday, with the heaviest streak setting up north of MSP; maybe 2-4" for the Alexandria and Brainerd Lakes area.

Another minor league snow event is possible Friday, with much heavier amounts possible over far southern Minnesota and Iowa. No flaky whoppers for the metro, but snowing all around us, it seems.

NOAA's long range models predict a warmer than normal winter for much of the southern and eastern USA, with a slight cold bias from Minnesota to Montana, thanks in part to a chilly La Nina phase of the equatorial Pacific. Personally I hope it snows (without a polar vortex).

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Clouds and flurries. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 27.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: N 5. Low: 14.

WEDNESDAY: Coating of flurries MSP, 2-4" up north. Winds: N 8-13. High: 22.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny - probably dry. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 8. High: 28.

FRIDAY: Snow possible, especially south of MSP. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 21. High: 30.

SATURDAY: More flurries, not as chilly. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 27. High: 32.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 28. High: 32.

MONDAY: Light snow or flurries possible. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High: 31.

This Day in Weather History

December 6th

1950: A snowstorm hits Duluth with 23.2 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a storm total of 35.2 inches.

1939: Warm weather occurs over parts of Minnesota. The high temperature hits 62 at New London.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 6th

Average High: 32F (Record: 63F set in 1939)

Average Low: 19F (Record: -19F set in 1972)

Record Rainfall: 0.53" set in 1935

Record Snowfall: 4.4" set in 1969

Twin Cities Almanac For December 6th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 6th

Sunrise: 7:36am

Sunset: 4:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 56 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 12 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 40 minutes

Moon Phase for December 6th at Midnight

0.9 Days Until Full "Cold" Moon

"10:08 p.m. CST - December is usually considered the month that the winter cold fastens its grip on the Northern Hemisphere. Sometimes this moon is referred to as the Long Nights Moon, and the nights are indeed at their longest. The moon is above the horizon a long time. On occasion, this moon was also called the Moon before Yule. This particular full moon makes its highest arc across the sky because it is opposite to the low sun. And on this very same night, another celestial object will also be opposite to the sun: Mars, which arrives at opposition 87 minutes after the moon turns full. Depending on your location, you will see Mars shining like a brilliant yellow-orange star, either hovering very close below the moon, or you will see the moon actually pass in front of Mars, producing an occultation."

Moon Phase For December 6th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows cooler than average temps across the Midwest and Western US. Meanwhile, it'll be warmer than average across the Central and Southern US as well as the Eastern US.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows active weather in place across the Southern and Eastern US with areas of rain and thunder. There will also be a little snow across the northern tier of the nation.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

A stalled frontal boundary across the Central US will be responsible for widespread showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. Some of the rain could be heavy enough to cause some minor snow accumulations.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the Western US and through the Intermountain-West. There will also be another heavier batch of rain in the Central US over the next several days.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially in the high elevations. There could also be plowable snow across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes through mid month. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The first complete picture of Arctic sea ice freeze-thaw cycle highlights sea ice response to climate change"

"Years of research show that climate change signals are amplified in the Arctic, and that sea ice in this region is sensitive to increases in Arctic warming. Sea ice greatly modifies the exchanges of heat, momentum and mass between the atmosphere and the ocean. So, the timings of the sea ice melt and freeze onsets, as well as the length of the melt and freeze seasons, play a key role in the "heat budget" of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system. Until now, most studies calculated the Arctic melt and freeze onsets using remote sensing observations from the surface, but rarely investigated the freeze-thaw process at ice bottom."

"Climate Change Will Make El Niño and La Niña Stronger by 2030 — 40 Years Sooner Than Previously Thought"

"During a recent trip to the Galápagos Islands, I eagerly plunged into the equatorial waters, hoping to snorkel with sea turtles, sea lions, and maybe even penguins. The possibility of swimming with penguins should have tipped me off that the toasty, tropical swim I was anticipating wasn't actually on offer. In fact, before too long, I was scrambling back into our dinghy — where I shivered uncontrollably for a good long while. I eventually did get to see a penguin — the one in the photo above. I took its portrait on Santiago Island, 25 miles south of the Equator. These flightless sea-going birds, usually associated with Antarctica, are able to survive here in the tropics because of ocean currents that deliver deep, cold, nutrient-rich water to the Galápagos."

"Finding safe haven in the climate change future: The Pacific Northwest"

"As the negative consequences of rising global temperatures due to mankind's relentless burning of fossil fuels become more and more apparent in communities across the United States, anxiety over finding a place to live safe from the ravages of climate change has also been on the rise. "Millions and likely tens of millions of Americans" will move because of climate through the end of the century, Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of real estate in Tulane University's School of Architecture, told Yahoo News. "People move because of school districts, affordability, job opportunities. There are a lot of drivers and I think it's probably best to think about this as 'climate is now one of those drivers.'"

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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