Sky-high MSP fares coming down to Earth after pandemic heights

The average airfare nationally from Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport actually declined this month.

That's good news for Minnesota travelers, especially after a survey this past fall found flights from MSP were the third-most expensive in the nation, averaging $456 a ticket on domestic travel.

"Right now, domestic airfare departing from Minneapolis is averaging $270 per ticket," said Hayley Berg, lead economist for the travel booking app Hopper. "That is lower than this time last year by 3.8% but higher than 2021 by 3.6%."

It seems airfares are normalizing as the post-pandemic travel frenzy has calmed. Berg said prices nationally this year — especially this fall — were in line with or lower than 2019.

Travelers who fly from MSP often see higher prices than other airports because of the dominance of Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines, which caters to business and premium leisure travelers. In recent months, some budget carriers have signaled reduced demand as travelers have cut back or opted for fewer — albeit more expensive — international trips.

How that will affect fares from MSP is hard to predict, experts said.

Minneapolis-based leisure carrier Sun Country Airlines is expanding and planned for strong booking activity from winter-weary Minnesota travelers in the coming months.

"If Frontier and Spirit and, yes, even Southwest, are reducing how much they're flying in and out of Minneapolis, that gives the other airlines — in particular, Delta, but also Sun Country — more freedom to keep fares a little higher," said Kyle Potter. executive editor of Thrifty Traveler.

And to raise price optimism even more in 2024: increased international competition is on the way to MSP. German carrier Lufthansa will begin nonstops from MSP to Frankfurt, and the Irish flag carrier Aer Lingus is resuming pre-pandemic service to Dublin.

Lufthansa's entry into MSP is a big move.

"We have never seen a Delta competitor make that kind of inroad at Minneapolis before: a major international airline that's not part of Delta's partnerships," Potter said.

Condor, a German carrier flying seasonally to Frankfurt, will provide even more competition on that route.

"Aer Lingus and Condor both focus extensively on the leisure traveler," said Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst who's president of Atmosphere Research Group. "That's really good for people who live in the Twin Cities who want to travel to Europe in the spring and summer and early fall."

To find the best fares, experts advocated for flexibility with your travel dates. Berg advised booking domestic trips three months in advance, and five months ahead of time for international voyages.

Low fares don't hang around.

"If you find schedules and fares that meet your needs, book them," Harteveldt said. "Don't try to game this."

And as always, be realistic about your travel ambitions.

"If you have your heart set on getting a last-minute trip deal to Paris for the Olympics," Berg said, "you're not going to get that."