College Hockey Insider: North Dakota-Denver series looms large, especially for the visitors

Denver, the reigning NCAA Division I men’s hockey champion, began the season as the pick to win the NCHC title in the conference’s preseason media poll. North Dakota was the consensus selection to finish second in the conference.

A glance at the NCHC standings with four weeks remaining in the regular season does not match those early projections made way back in September. Western Michigan is atop the NCHC, three points ahead of Arizona State and Nebraska Omaha.

North Dakota sits in fourth place and Denver in fifth. So, when the Fighting Hawks and Pioneers meet on Friday and Saturday in Denver in a matchup of heated rivals, there will be urgency for two teams that have combined to win 18 national championships.

Denver, No. 10 in the PairWise Ratings — the computer formula used to pick the 10 at-large teams to the NCAA tournament — likely has done enough to earn an NCAA bid. North Dakota, No. 23 in the PairWise, has a ton of work to do, and the Fighting Hawks’ best opportunity to make the NCAA field is to win the NCHC tournament and the automatic bid that goes with it.

“There’s so much on the line. It’s do-or-die for us for the rest of the season,” Fighting Hawks senior forward Carter Wilkie said. “If we want to keep playing after the NCHC [tournament] or get an auto bid for the [NCAA] tournament, we’ve got to start winning not only one game on a weekend, we’ve got to start sweeping.”

North Dakota (14-11-2, 9-6-1 NCHC) is in this pickle because it has struggled to sweep opponents in the second half of the season. The Fighting Hawks are 3-4-1 since the calendar flipped to January. According to College Hockey News' PairWise Probability Matrix, they have a 0.5% chance of receiving an at-large bid but a 4% chance of winning the NCHC’s automatic bid.

Long odds, for sure, but with Denver, Western Michigan and Nebraska Omaha among their final four regular-season opponents, the Fighting Hawks have a chance to move up if they string together sweeps.

Denver (20-7-1, 9-6-1) swept North Dakota 5-2 and 3-2 in Grand Forks in November but has been up-and-down lately, splitting a series at Arizona State last week, gaining four points against Nebraska Omaha and splitting at Minnesota Duluth three weeks ago. Still, the PairWise Probability Matrix gives the Pioneers a 98% chance of making the NCAA field.

“We’ve got to continue to grind and get points any way we can,” Denver coach David Carle said.

Hockey coaches wearing helmets during practice has become a local issue over the past two weeks after Jason Jensen, a girls assistant coach for Holy Family Catholic High School in Victoria and former Minnesota State Mankato goalie, suffered a head injury from a fall on the ice that left him in critical condition. He was not wearing a helmet.

For the past two seasons, Gophers men’s hockey coach Bob Motzko has worn a helmet while on the ice during practices. His reasoning:

“I don’t move like I used to. I know it looks like it, but I don’t,” the 63-year-old said.

Humor aside, Motzko’s decision was something he “contemplated a long time” but now seems natural to him.

“I finally put one on, and I can tell you the minute I put it on, I felt comfortable,” Motzko said. “… I’m keeping it on, too."

Depending on the conference, there are either three or four weeks remaining in the regular season, and it’s time again to look at a potential NCAA tournament field. NCAA regionals will run March 27-30, and the four regional sites are Allentown, Pa.; Fargo, N.D.; Manchester, N.H.; and Toledo, Ohio. The Frozen Four will be April 10-12 in St. Louis.

Here’s a look at this week’s projection using current conference leaders to fill automatic bids and the PairWise Ratings to fill at-large spots:

Manchester, N.H., Regional

1. Boston College vs. 16. Holy Cross

8. Ohio State vs. 9. Connecticut

Toledo, Ohio, Regional

2. Michigan State vs. 14. Quinnipiac

7. Providence vs. 12. Michigan

Fargo, N.D., Regional

3. Gophers vs. 15. Minnesota State Mankato

6. Boston University vs. 10. Denver

Allentown, Pa., Regional

4. Maine vs. 13. Arizona State

5. Western Michigan vs. 11. UMass-Lowell

Comment: To avoid a first-round intraconference matchup, Boston University and UMass-Lowell are split up. Lowell moves to Allentown to face Western Michigan. To help attendance in Toledo, Michigan moves from Fargo to Toledo, and Denver moves from Toledo to Fargo. To help attendance in Fargo, Minnesota State moves from Toledo to Fargo for a first-round matchup with the Gophers, while Quinnipiac moves from Fargo to Toledo to face Michigan State.

Outside, looking in: Massachusetts (No. 14 in PairWise), No. 16 Penn State, No. 18 New Hampshire.