Neal Justin: ‘Shogun’ will dominate the upcoming Emmy Awards

Our TV critic predicts who will come out on top during TV’s biggest night.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
August 15, 2024 at 1:00PM
Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada are riding into the Emmys as favorites to win. (Katie Yu/FX)

If you think the last Primetime Emmy Awards ceremonies were just yesterday, you’re not far off. Due to Hollywood strikes, the 75th edition of the event was delayed from September 2023 to this past January, which means there will be only an eight-month gap before the honors for the 76th ceremony are handed out in Los Angeles on Sept.15. It will air on ABC at 7 p.m.

But expect a different story line. While “The Bear” will most likely repeat as the big winner in comedy (but is it really a comedy?), “Shōgun” will earn the most trips to the podium.

Here’s all you need to know to score big in your office pool.

Drama series

Nominees: “The Crown”; “Fallout”; “The Gilded Age”; “The Morning Show”; “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”; “Shōgun”; “Slow Horses”; “3 Body Problem.”

Will and should win: “Shōgun” is a masterpiece worthy of its whopping 25 nominations. Impressive for a show that’s mostly in Japanese.

Drama, lead actor

Nominees: Idris Elba, “Hijack”; Donald Glover, “Smith”; Walton Goggins, “Fallout”; Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”; Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”; Dominic West, “Crown.”

Will and should win: You would think movie stars like Oldman and Elba would have the edge, but Sanada is set to benefit from a “Shōgun” sweep.

Drama, lead actress

Nominees: Jennifer Aniston, “Morning”; Carrie Coon, “Gilded”; Maya Erskine, “Smith”; Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”; Imelda Staunton, “Crown”; Reese Witherspoon, “Morning.”

Will and should win: Everyone but Sawai is a previous Emmy nominee, but the “Shōgun” standout gave the most moving performance of the year.

Comedy series

Nominees: “Abbott Elementary”; “The Bear”; “Curb Your Enthusiasm”; “Hacks”; “Only Murders in the Building”; “Palm Royale”; “Reservation Dogs”; “What We Do in the Shadows.”

Who will win: “The Bear” makes it two in the row.

Who should win: Sorry, but “The Bear” just doesn’t belong in this category — or on my top 10 list. “Hacks” is far more delicious.

Comedy, lead actress

Nominees: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott”; “Ayo Edebiri, “Bear”; Selena Gomez, “Murders”; Maya Rudolph, “Loot”; Jean Smart, “Hacks”; Kristen Wiig, “Palm.”

Who will win: Brunson, Edebiri and Smart have all won for their current roles. Smart is the slight favorite.

Who should win: Rudolph took the usually thankless role of a spoiled socialite and made it something rich.

Comedy, lead actor

Nominees: Matt Berry, “Shadows”; Larry David, “Curb”; Steve Martin, “Murders”; Martin Short, “Murders”; Jeremy Allen White, “Bear;” D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation.”

Who will win: White is the voters’ master chef.

Who should win: David’s acceptance speech would be pretty, pretty good.

Limited or anthology series

Nominees: “Baby Reindeer”; “Fargo”; “Lessons in Chemistry”; “Ripley”; “True Detective: Night Country.”

Will win: “Baby” got the most buzz, despite a lack of big stars.

Should and will win: I’d love to see “Fargo” triumph, but “Ripley” gave me more chills than a Minnesota winter.

Limited, anthology or movie, lead actor

Nominees: Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”; Richard Gadd, “Reindeer”; Jon Hamm, “Fargo”; Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”; Andrew Scott, “Ripley.”

Will and should win: Scott’s eerie turn made me forget he was once the sexy priest in “Fleabag.”

Limited, anthology or movie, lead actress

Nominees: Jodie Foster, “Detective”; Brie Larson, “Chemistry”; Juno Temple, “Fargo”; Sofia Vergara, “Griselda”; Naomi Watts, “Feud.”

Will win: This might be the tightest race of the night. Foster will most likely go home with the hardware, if only for agreeing to do TV.

Should win: Vergara separated herself from a cootchy-coo image with this portrayal of a ruthless mobster.

Talk series

Nominees: “The Daily Show”; “Jimmy Kimmel Live”; “Late Night With Seth Meyers”; “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”

Will win: Now that “Last Week Tonight” has shifted to another category, “Daily Show” has returned to its winning ways.

Should win: Give it to Kimmel as a lifetime achievement award — and for being the nicest guy in Hollywood.

about the writer

Neal Justin

Critic / Reporter

Neal Justin is the pop-culture critic, covering how Minnesotans spend their entertainment time. He also reviews stand-up comedy. Justin previously served as TV and music critic for the paper. He is the co-founder of JCamp, a non-profit program for high-school journalists, and works on many fronts to further diversity in newsrooms.

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