NFC North Week 10 picks: Defenses in the spotlight, for good and bad reasons

In Detroit, the Lions’ defense is much better than its run-of-the-mill ranking of 21st in yards allowed. Detroit (7-1) has the only defense in the league ranked in the top five in the four most important statistical categories: Points allowed (18.5, fifth), takeaways (16, third), third-down efficiency (29.9%, first) and red-zone efficiency (43.5%, fourth). Detroit also added a pass rusher at the deadline, former Viking Za’Darius Smith, who will help if he can stay healthy.

In Chicago, the Bears (4-4) won the turnover battle (2-0) at Arizona last week and still lost 29-9. It was the first time the Bears lost a game while winning the turnover battle this season. They’re plus-7 in turnover differential, fifth-best in the league. So what happened in the desert? A stout Bears defense was shockingly bad versus the run. It gave up 213 yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries (6.3). Throw in what the Commanders did to Chicago the week before, and the Bears have allowed 381 yards rushing the past two weeks. Only Jacksonville (407) has allowed more.

In Green Bay, the Packers limped into their bye week with a 10-point home beatdown from the Lions. The Packers (6-3) will rest up this week and then head to Chicago looking to do something that’s never been done by either team in a rivalry that goes back to 1921, the second year of the NFL’s existence. The Packers have beaten the Bears 10 straight times. That ties the longest winning streak by either team in 103 years of games. Green Bay also beat the Bears 10 straight from 1994-98.

Sunday, noon

With or without Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars and the AFC South are fighting above their inter-conference weight class this season. Blake Cashman’s return boosts Brian Flores’ defense. Jags’ weak fan base and lousy record allows Vikings Nation to steal home-field advantage. Vikings 34, Jaguars 13

Sunday, noon

It’ll be a sloppy game between a couple of top-5-drafted QBs not named Jayden Daniels. Chicago’s defense should handle New England’s offense, especially at home. Bears 18, Patriots 15

Sunday, 7:20 p.m.

The Lions are 7-1 for the first time since 1957. They’re going for their first 8-1 start since 1954. And with their next three games against the AFC South, the high-flying Lions are eyeballing their first 10-1 start since … wait for it … 1934, their fifth year of existence and their only 10-1 start to date. The NFC North is 9-2 against the AFC South this season. Lions 33, Texans 24

Record/vs. spread: 20-10/20-9-1.

Vikings pick/vs. spread: 3-5/3-4-1.