Mark Craig’s conference championship picks: Who will make it to the Super Bowl?

Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen again in the AFC. NFC East rivals squares off for a trip to New Orleans. Who will be the last two teams standing?

The Minnesota Star Tribune
January 24, 2025 at 2:00PM
Jayden Daniels had a career-high five touchdown passes, including the game-winner with 6 seconds left, in Washington’s 36-33 Week 16 win over the Eagles. (Nick Wass/The Associated Press)

NFC

No. 6 Washington (12-5) at No. 2 Philadelphia (14-3)

Time (TV): 2 p.m. Sunday (Fox)

Line: Eagles by 6½

The matchup: The NFC East rivals split their regular-season meetings with the home team winning each time. Saquon Barkley had 146 yards rushing and two TDs in the final five minutes in the Eagles’ 26-18 Week 11 victory. Jayden Daniels had a career-high five TD passes, including the game-winner with 6 seconds left, in Washington’s 36-33 Week 16 win.

Did you know? Leading Washington to 14 wins, including playoffs, Dan Quinn joined Tony Sparano (Dolphins, 2008) as the only coaches to improve a team by 10 wins in his first season.

Prediction: Only one team has reached 23 points on the Eagles’ No. 2-ranked scoring defense in the last 11 games. Washington put up 36 in Week 16 with the rookie phenom Daniels throwing three of his five touchdowns while erasing a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit. Conservative logic says take Philly at home. But destiny seems to be screaming take Daniels to orchestrate a third consecutive road playoff upset en route to the first Super Bowl start for a rookie QB. Commanders 35, Eagles 28

AFC

Josh Allen and the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. Allen sealed the win with a 26-yard TD run on fourth down with 2:17 left. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/The Associated Press)

No. 2 Buffalo (13-4) at No. 1 Kansas City (15-2)

Time (TV): 5:30 p.m. Sunday (CBS, Paramount+)

Line: Chiefs by 1½

The matchup: Josh Allen has won four consecutive regular-season games against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has won three consecutive playoff games against the Bills. In Week 11 at Buffalo, Allen had 317 yards (262 passing, 55 rushing) in a 30-21 win. The possible MVP also sealed that game with a 26-yard touchdown run on fourth down with 2:17 left.

Did you know? Allen and Mahomes will become the fifth set of QBs to meet at least four times in the postseason since 1950. The others: Tom Brady-Peyton Manning (five), Terry Bradshaw-Ken Stabler (four), Brett Favre-Steve Young (four) and Brady-Joe Flacco (four).

Prediction: Neither team beats itself. With eight giveaways, Buffalo can become the first team to reach the Super Bowl with 10 or fewer turnovers. Kansas City, meanwhile, has not turned the ball over in eight consecutive games, an NFL record, including playoffs. The urge is to argue that Allen and the Bills are hungrier, that they’re due to finally overcome the Chiefs, that Kansas City will join the other eight repeat Super Bowl winners in falling short of returning to the Super Bowl for a third consecutive year. There is, however, another voice inside this head. The one that’s yelling, “Are you really thinking of picking against Patrick Mahomes!? In the playoffs?! At home!? Chiefs 44, Bills 38 (OT)

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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