NFL playoffs: Two-time defending champion Chiefs have entered the chat

Kansas City, Detroit and Philadelphia are heavy favorites in the divisional round while Buffalo and Baltimore seem primed for a classic. Who will win? Let Mark Craig help.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
January 17, 2025 at 6:19PM
With 15 playoff wins, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes needs one more to tie Joe Montana for second place behind Tom Brady (35). (Gary McCullough/The Associated Press)

Saturday’s games

AFC: Houston (11-6) at Kansas City (15-2)

Time (TV): 3:30 p.m. (ABC, ESPN)

Point spread: Chiefs by 8½

The matchup: The Chiefs’ 8-0 home record includes a 27-19 Week 16 victory over Houston. Kansas City hit C.J. Stroud 13 times and intercepted him twice, leading to 10 points. Houston went 5-4 on the road and is coming off a 32-12 home wild-card victory in which it intercepted the Chargers’ Justin Herbert four times.

Did you know? With 15 playoff victories, Patrick Mahomes needs one more to tie Joe Montana for second place behind Tom Brady (35).

Prediction: Mahomes and the top-seeded Chiefs have won seven straight postseason games in their quest to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. The No. 4 Texans are 0-5 on the road in playoff games and have never reached the AFC title game. Houston regained a lot of confidence as an underdog last week, but beating K.C. is a task too tall. Chiefs 30, Texans 20

Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) is crowned by Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) after he scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Vikings take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in Detroit on Jan. 5, 2025. (Elizabeth Flores/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

NFC: Washington (13-4) at Detroit (14-3)

Time (TV): 7 p.m. (Fox)

Point spread: Lions by 8½

The matchup: The top-seeded Lions are well-rested and 7-2 at home. Sixth-seeded Washington is 6-3 on the road, including last week’s wild-card upset at Tampa Bay in which Jayden Daniels became the fourth rookie QB to win his first road playoff game. The Lions led the league in scoring (33.2) and were second in yards (409.5).

Did you know? Daniels needs one win to tie Ben Roethlisberger’s 2004 rookie record of 14, including playoffs.

Prediction: Detroit isn’t a nine-point slam dunk. The Lions gave up 31-plus points in three of their past five games. Washington has scored 30-plus in three of its past six, including 36 against Philly. The trust here is in Jared Goff and his offensive line winning a shootout at home as Detroit wins playoff games in back-to-back years for the first time since 1952-53. Lions 34, Commanders 31

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs for a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half of an NFL football game in Inglewood, Calif., on Nov. 24, 2024. (Ryan Sun/The Associated Press)

Sundays’ games

NFC: L.A. Rams (10-7) at Philadelphia (14-3)

Time (TV): 2 p.m. (NBC, Peacock)

Point spread: Eagles by 6

The matchup: Philadelphia beat the host Rams 37-20 in Week 12 as Saquon Barkley ran for a franchise-record 255 yards with TDs of 70 and 72 yards. The fourth-seeded Rams have won six of seven since, including a nine-sack, 27-9 wild-card beatdown of the Vikings. Second-seeded Philly, meanwhile, had four takeaways in routing the Packers 22-10 last week.

Did you know? Sean McVay, 38, is 88-56, including playoffs, and yet he’s still the NFL’s second-youngest head coach.

Prediction: The No. 2-ranked Philadelphia defense is tough to bet against at home, where the Eagles are 8-1. The Rams are a tough out with Matthew Stafford and an underrated pass rush that had a breakout game against the Vikings. The difference is Philly has an O-line that can throw water on that pass rush, not gasoline. Eagles 24, Rams 16

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson looks to pass during the team's 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. (Terrance Williams/The Associated Press)

AFC: Baltimore (12-5) at Buffalo (14-4)

Time (TV): 5:30 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)

Point spread: Ravens by 1

The matchup: Baltimore crushed Buffalo 35-10 in Week 4 as Lamar Jackson posted a 135.4 passer rating and Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards. No. 2 Buffalo averaged an AFC-high 30.9 points and beat Denver 31-7 last weekend. The third-seeded Ravens, meanwhile, cruised past Pittsburgh 28-14 as Henry ran for 186 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries (7.2).

Did you know? Josh Allen (609) and Jackson (602) rank 1-2 in career postseason rushing yards by a quarterback.

Prediction: This could be an instant classic with first-team All-Pro Jackson and second-team All-Pro and still-possible MVP winner Allen trading touchdowns. The Ravens rank No. 1 in rushing and rushing defense — two strengths that travel well. They have also given up a league-low 11.4 points in their past five games. Ravens 35, Bills 31

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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