NFL playoff predictions: Are any surprises in store for wild-card weekend?

The Minnesota Star Tribune’s Mark Craig picks the winners for wild-card weekend and maps out the rest of the NFL postseason until Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
January 10, 2025 at 4:00PM
Quarterback Lamar Jackson, left, and running back Derrick Henry power the Ravens' No. 1 rushing offense, which averages 187.6 yards per game. (Frank Franklin II/The Associated Press)

Saturday’s games

L.A. Chargers (11-6) at Houston (10-7)

Time (TV): 3:30 p.m. Saturday (CBS, Paramount+)

Line: Chargers by 2½

The matchup: The teams haven’t met since 2022. The fifth-seeded Chargers are one of four AFC teams with six road victories. The fourth-seeded Texans are 5-3 at home and 1-5 against teams with winning records. Texans QB C.J. Stroud, the talk of the league as a rookie in 2023, has seen his interceptions go up (five to 12) and rating go down (100.8 to 87.0).

Did you know? Houston’s Will Anderson (11) and Danielle Hunter (12) are the only AFC teammates with 11 or more sacks.

Prediction: Jim Harbaugh and his hard-nosed, don’t-beat-yourself brand is back as the Chargers joined the Commanders and Vikings as playoff teams that finished last in their divisions in 2023. The Chargers posted the No. 1 scoring defense (17.7) as Justin Herbert joined Aaron Rodgers as the only QBs ever to throw 500-plus passes with three or fewer interceptions. Chargers 30, Texans 17

Pittsburgh (10-7) at Baltimore (12-5)

Time (TV): 7 p.m. Saturday (Amazon Prime Video)

Line: Ravens by 9½

The matchup: The teams split their two meetings this season, with Pittsburgh winning 18-16 on six Chris Boswell field goals at home in Week 11 and Baltimore winning 34-17 at home in Week 16. Pittsburgh, the No. 6 seed, has lost four games in a row by an average of 13 points. The Ravens, the third-seeded AFC North champions, have won four in a row by an average of 23 points.

Did you know? Baltimore outgained its opponents by an average of 100.8 yards this season. That led the league by 20 yards.

Prediction: No. 1 rankings in running the ball (187.6) and stopping the run (80.1) are the best signs that a Baltimore team with gobs of talent is too powerful to let pesky Pittsburgh snap out of a funk that has seen the Steelers lose four consecutive games to teams with winning records after going 5-0 in that area to start the season. Ravens 35, Steelers 21

Packers quarterback Jordan Love is expected to play against the Eagles after sustaining an elbow injury last week. (Jeffrey Phelps/The Associated Press)

Sunday’s games

Denver (10-7) at Buffalo (13-4)

Time (TV): noon Sunday (CBS, Paramount+)

Line: Bills by 8½

The matchup: The teams didn’t meet this season. Seventh-seeded Denver led the league in sacks (63) while Buffalo’s Josh Allen was sacked a league-low 14 times. No. 2 seed Buffalo is 8-0 at home and is the only team to beat both No. 1 seeds (Lions and Chiefs). Denver is 4-5 on the road, including 1-5 against teams with a winning record.

Did you know? Allen’s 328.6-yard average passing and rushing is best ever among QBs with at least 10 playoff games.

Prediction: Bo Nix has had the best rookie QB season of anyone not named Jayden Daniels. Denver also has the No. 3 scoring defense (18.3). But it’s darn near impossible to picture an MVP frontrunner (Allen) with the No. 2-ranked scoring attack (30.9) losing at home for the first time this season to a rookie quarterback. Bills 31, Broncos 21

Green Bay (11-6) at Philadelphia (14-3)

Time (TV): 3:30 p.m. Sunday (Fox)

Line: Eagles by 4½

The matchup: Twenty-five combined wins is the most ever for a wild-card game. The teams met in Week 1 in Brazil with RB Saquon Barkley posting 132 yards from scrimmage and three TDs in his winning Philly debut. The seventh-seeded Packers are without WR Christian Watson (knee) while QB Jordan Love likely will play through an elbow injury.

Did you know? No. 7 seeds are 1-7. The average loss is 12.4 points. The only victory: Packers 48-32 at Dallas last season.

Prediction: The second-seeded Eagles rested starters last week and should get Jalen Hurts (concussion) back this week. Green Bay is beat up from last week’s loss to Chicago. A 2,000-yard rusher (Barkley), the No. 2-ranked scoring defense (17.8) and great home-field advantage are too much to overcome for the Packers to win as a No. 7 seed for the second year in a row. Eagles 28, Packers 19

Washington (12-5) at Tampa Bay (10-7)

Time (TV): 7 p.m. Sunday (NBC, Peacock)

Line: Buccaneers by 3

The matchup: The third-seeded Bucs beat Washington 37-20 with Baker Mayfield throwing four touchdowns at home in Week 1. But the sixth-seeded Commanders went on to win 12 games for the first time since 1991 with rookie QB Jayden Daniels playing 91% of the snaps in 17 starts.

Did you know? Washington’s 87% success rate on fourth down (20 of 23) led the NFL by 14 percentage points.

Prediction: Daniels isn’t the only rookie to watch. Tampa Bay fourth-round pick Bucky Irving, a former Gophers running back, led all rookies in rushing yards (1,122), TDs (eight) and scrimmage yards (1,514). Add that to Mayfield’s 4,500 yards passing, 41 TDs and Washington’s 30th-ranked run defense (137.5) … and take the Bucs. But beware of their minus-5 turnover differential! Buccaneers 30, Commanders 22

Rookie Jared Verse is one of the leaders of a dangerous Rams pass rush. (Eric Thayer/The Associated Press)

Monday’s game

Vikings (14-3) at L.A. Rams (10-7), Glendale, Ariz.

Time (TV): 7 p.m. Monday (ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+)

Line: Vikings by 1½

The matchup: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from injuries as the 2-4 Rams upset the 5-1 Vikings 30-20 at home in Week 8. With a chance to avoid the loser of the Lions-Vikings game, the Rams chose to rest their starters and accept the lower seed. “We respect everyone, but fear no one,” coach Sean McVay said. The game was moved to the home of the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday because of this week’s devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.

Did you know? Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings are 30-3 when they don’t lose the turnover battle. All three losses came this year.

Prediction: Of the 14 playoff teams, the Rams rank lowest in scoring offense (20th) and rushing (24th). But if grit were a measurable, QB Matthew Stafford would rank below no one. His team is rested. His defense has a dangerous pass rush led by rookies Jared Verse outside and Braden Fiske inside. And, oh yeah, Sam Darnold did nothing last week to ease fears of another painful Purple heartbreak. Rams 27, Vikings 24

Divisional round

AFC

No. 1 Kansas City 30, No. 5 L.A. Chargers 23

No. 3 Baltimore 34, No. 2 Buffalo 31

NFC

No. 1 Detroit 37, No. 4 L.A. Rams 24

No. 2 Philadelphia 20, No. 3 Tampa Bay 17

Conference championships

AFC

No. 3 Baltimore 33, No. 1 Kansas City 30

NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia 24, No. 1 Detroit 21

Super Bowl LIX

Baltimore 33, Philadelphia 27

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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