Mark Craig's Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Week 10 was a weird one in that the NFL found a way to make 10 losses by double-digits more interesting than they should have been.

After nine weeks with 36 games decided by three or fewer points, the NFL had teams lose by 10, 12, 17 (twice), 21, 24, 27, 28, 38 and 40.

But …

Three of the blowouts were delivered to division leaders Tampa Bay (10 points), Baltimore (12) and Arizona (24) by losing teams from Washington (9½-point underdogs), Miami (7 ½ points) and Carolina (10 ½). And if that wasn't enough, the seven-win Rams lost by 21 to the three-win 49ers.

Go figure. But, somehow, this NFL guesstimator broke even against the spread (7-7). We'll keep the overall mark against the spread internal. Next question.

We're on to Week 11 and, well, wish us luck because we'll probably all need it.

A week after going 8-5-1 straight up — yes, Pittsburgh tied the Lions, falling short of the predicted 45-0 triumph — this guesstimator is playing it safe with only two predicted upsets.

Seattle and Pittsburgh will keep the Cardinals and Chargers tumbling. Seattle, this week's Upset Special guess, is at home while Pittsburgh visits every Charger opponent's $5 billion home away from home in L.A.

As for the Lions? This guesstimator's badly failed Week 8 Upset Special disappointers (6-44 vs. Philly, GRRR) will keep it closer than last week's guess. They'll lose to Cleveland 31-0.

UPDATED ODDS: Spreads, money lines, over/under

Here's a look at this week's games:

Patriots (-6 ½) at Falcons
Bill Belichick has faced and punished four first- or second-year NFL head coaches the past four games. He's 4-0 while outscoring the hot-shot pups 150-50. Next up is Atlanta's 39-year-old Arthur Smith, another first-year NFL head coach. It's tough to pick against the home team on Thursday nights, but the Patriots and their coach are on too much of a roll to drop this one. Patriots 27, Falcons 20

Packers (-2 ½) at Vikings
Green Bay's Aaron Jones is out, the Packers' defense is beat up and U.S. Bank Stadium will be unfriendly to nemesis Aaron Rodgers once again. But it won't be enough to overcome the 8-2 Packers. Rodgers is too good to bet against, and Green Bay's defense has overcome numerous injuries to limit opponents to 15 points a game since the season-opening 38-3 loss to the Saints. Packers 28, Vikings 21

Saints (+1 ½) at Eagles
The Eagles are 0-4 at home. The Saints are 4-2 away from home, including a win over the Packers in Jacksonville. So, naturally, per NFL logic, the Eagles beat the Saints at home. Eagles 24, Saints 21

Dolphins (-3) at Jets
Miami has followed its seven-game losing streak with a two-game winning streak that includes a 12-point defensive beatdown of the Ravens in the sauna that is South Beach. Miami will have enough defense to go to New York and beat whatever QB the Jets throw out there. Dolphins 23, Jets 16

Washington (+3 ½) at Panthers
Healthy Christian McCaffrey = Panthers victory. CMC could win MVP based in large part on how his team disappears without him. Panthers 34, Washington 28

Colts (+7) at Bills
Indy ranks third in yards rushing per attempt (5.07). But the Bills can stop the run (3.76 yards per attempt). Once they do, they also lead the league in fewest yards allowed per passing attempt (5.38). Bills 25, Colts 16

Lions (+11 ½) at Browns
A weekly reminder to never show any faith in Detroit ever again. Browns 31, Lions 0

49ers (-6 ½) at Jaguars
Are the 49ers a good bad team or a bad good team? Yes. Jacksonville is just a bad bad team. 49ers 31, Jaguars 7

Texans (+10) at Titans
It felt like Tennessee should lose because it's won a league-high six straight, including the last five against 2020 playoff teams. It's due. But a glance at who they're playing changes all that. Titans 37, Texans 19

Ravens (-5 ½) at Bears
Someone will have to pay for Baltimore's ugly, no-show of a loss at steamy Miami. Even coming off a bye and playing at home, Chicago more than qualifies as the punching bag. Ravens 29, Bears 19

Bengals (-1) at Raiders
Two 5-4 teams racing in the wrong direction meet after ugly back-to-back losses that included a combined 0-2 effort against New Jersey's teams. Go with the team coming off the bye. Bengals 21, Raiders 17

Cowboys (+2 ½) at Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is riding a two-game streak without turning the ball over. He'll make it three while doing just enough to score three more than whatever Dak Prescott slaps on K.C.'s defense. Chiefs 44, Cowboys 41 (OT)

Steelers (+6 ½) at Chargers
The slide continues for the Chargers on Sunday night as Pittsburgh, which welcomes back Ben Roethlisberger after a one-week absence, wins a prime-time "home" (away from home) game in Los Angeles. Steelers 21, Chargers 19

Giants (+10 ½) at Buccaneers
Tom Brady hasn't lost three straight games as a Buccaneer. Nor will he on Monday night. But if he does, ooh boy, the He's-Over-The-Hill Buzzard Brigade will reassemble for approximately the 150^th time in the last decade. Eventually, the buzzards will be right. Just not Monday. Buccaneers 35, Giants 20

UPSET SPECIAL

Cardinals (-1 ½) at Seahawks
The wheels are coming off the Cardinals at the same time Russell Wilson's are being put back on. Wilson bounces back from his first career shutout to improve to 16-4 at home in November. Seahawks 28, Cardinals 27

Last week's Upset Special: Saints (+3) 26, Titans 23. Actual score: Titans 23, Saints 21, Saints 25. Record: 6-3.

SEASON RESULTS

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 8-5-1/7-7.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 95-54-1/69-81.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 7-2/4-5.