NFC North Week 12 picks: Lions eye records while others hope for improvement on offense
The Minnesota Star Tribune’s Mark Craig takes a spin around the NFC North and finds lots and lots of points in Detroit, improvement in Chicago and smart halftime decisions in Green Bay.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 22, 2024 at 7:02PM
- In Detroit, the Lions joined the 1973 Falcons and 1969 Vikings as the only teams in the Super Bowl era with three wins of 35 points or more in their first 10 games of a season. The 52-6 win over Jacksonville also was their second 52-point game of the year. The Lions are averaging 33.6 points a game, which would rank 11th in NFL history. Asked if Detroit might finish the year with one of the best offenses in league history, coach Dan Campbell said: “I think we have that ability, I really do. We have everything that we need.”
- In Chicago, the Bears offense ranks 31st ahead of only Cleveland in third-down conversions (31.88%). However, Chicago also is coming off a season-high 56.3% success rate (9 of 16) in Sunday’s 20-19 loss to Green Bay, the first game with Thomas Brown calling plays after the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The Bears started 6 of 10 on third downs after being 6 of 40 the previous three games. The Bears also converted all three fourth-down opportunities and didn’t turn the ball over for a third straight game, the longest stretch by a Bears team since 1979.
- In Green Bay, the Packers continue to be among the best teams in the league at making halftime adjustments offensively. Green Bay led the league in points scored on the first possession of the second half in 2021 (72) and 2023 (56). This year, they rank third (45).
The picks
Vikings (-3½) at Bears
Sunday, noon
Caleb Williams and the Bears offense were balanced and decisive with Brown calling plays in what should have been a last-second win over the Packers. Logic says Brian Flores and the Vikings’ No. 1-ranked run defense will befuddle the No. 1 overall pick. This, however, has the feel of a typical NFL upset in which a team that’s won three straight trips over the division foe that’s lost four straight but has home-field advantage and newfound confidence from finding a balanced, quick-release rhythm offensively. Bears 20, Vikings 19
Lions (-7½) at Colts
Sunday, noon
Indy will be another insignificant pebble in the path of the NFC’s runaway locomotive. Detroit has its best record (9-1) since starting 10-0 in 1934. The Lions are coming off their biggest rout (46 points) and most explosive offensive output (644 yards) in last week’s 52-6 win over the Jaguars. And, heck, even their rookie kicker – Jake Bates – banged a 54-yarder while improving to 15 of 15 on the year. Lions 34, Colts 21
49ers (+3) at Packers
Sunday, 3:25 p.m.
As the rest of the NFC whooshes by them, it might be time to say the 49ers aren’t who we thought they were. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record, and it won’t happen this week on the road. Packers 24, 49ers 21
Season results
Record/vs. spread: 25-11/23-12-1.
Vikings pick/vs. spread: 5-5/4-5-1.
Got a question about the Vikings? Email it to accessvikings@startribune.com. We’ll answer your questions in an upcoming Access Vikings newsletter or podcast.
Vikings tight end Josh Oliver has not practiced all week after sustaining an ankle injury against the Titans last Sunday. His absence could mean more playing time for T.J. Hockenson.
