Mark Craig's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread

A piece of advice to NFL owners as the Black Monday nears and the next cycle of coaching searches commences:

If you've located your next head coach and he has absolutely zero experience coaching and leading grown men getting paid to play this game, do not say what Jaguars owner Shad Khan said about Urban Meyer just 11 months and 13 games ago. And that was, with a big smile, "This time, I got it right!"

Uh, sorry. Nobody in the history of football has gotten it more wrong. And now, finally, Meyer's NFL career is over at 2-11 after this week's firing.

If Khan had been able to stomach another month of Meyer, his Jaguars might have been able to make a run at Detroit for back-to-back No. 1 overall picks. But, unfortunately for Jacksonville's draftniks, the Jags are going to perk up the way the guards did in the Wizard of Oz when Dorothy killed the witch.

Win No. 3 comes Sunday against Houston.

Last week was a relative breeze for NFL guesstimators. Even this spot went 9-5 against the spread. (Of course, it helps when the also-rans like the Texans, Jags, Jets, Lions and Giants lie down the way they're supposed to and lose by a combined 105 points.)

Week 15 should have some easy (a famous last word when guessing NFL outcomes) straight-up picks with six teams being favored by 9 or more points, including the Cardinals (13 ½) at once-again-lifeless Detroit.

Thanks to a 17-game schedule and seven playoff spots, five 6-7 NFC teams are still being encouraged to think of themselves as playoff-worthy. That includes the Vikings, who head to Chicago for the Hot Seat Bowl between Mike Zimmer and Matt Nagy.

According to the guesses below, Zim's seat will cool a tad. For now.

The Vikings and Eagles will move to 7-7 while the Falcons, Saints and Washington drop to 6-8. If that happens, the Vikings would move into the seventh playoff spot heading back home to play the Rams.

The Rams were red-hot at Arizona on Monday, which means they'll be blue-cold and ripe for this week's Upset Special at home against Seattle on Sunday. And, of course, that, per illogical NFL logic, would make the Rams red-hot again when they play the Vikings.

UPDATED ODDS: Point spreads, money lines, over/under

Here's a look at this week's games:

Vikings (-5½) at Bears
The Bears no doubt will have the ball with a chance to win in the closing seconds Monday night. Duh. But Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' offense should be able to outscore a 27th-ranked scoring attack that's led by a wide-eyed rookie with only two wins and a whole lot to still learn about the kind of disguises that are built into the Vikings defense. (And, yes, Bears fans, we do realize the Vikings somehow lost to Detroit). Vikings 30, Bears 24

Patriots (+2 ½) at Colts

Yeah, not buying the Patriots as an underdog. It's December, they've won seven straight games, they have the league's No. 1 scoring defense by more than 2 points. And, like the Colts, they're also coming off a bye week. Take Belichick over Reich on Saturday with an extra week to get ready. Patriots 24, Colts 17

Panthers (+11 ½) at Bills
Carolina's three-headed disaster at quarterback comes at the right time for a good but sliding Bills team that needs a momentum-changing win to keep pace in the AFC. Bills 33, Panthers 15

Jets (+9 ½) at Dolphins
The Jets will keep it close, like they did late last month (24-17), but the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa are coming off a bye and rolling along with a five-game winning streak. Dolphins 27, Jets 21

Cowboys (-10 ½) at Giants
It doesn't matter who plays quarterback for the Giants. Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' deep pool of pass rushers will dominate the game, and their offense a chance to work things out and play more like Dallas did in a 44-20 rout of the Giants two months ago. Cowboys 34, Giants 7

Steelers (+1) at Titans
Tennessee doesn't have Derrick Henry, but it still has way more of a running game than Pittsburgh's soft defense can handle. Ben Roethlisberger won't go down without a fight (eh, Vikings fans?), but the Steelers can't stop the run. Titans 27, Steelers 23

Texans (+4½) at Jaguars
Every player, coach, executive and fan will experience a giant mental boost and sing … "Ding, Dong, the Urban Meyer Reign is Dead!" all the way to a third victory in this battle of 2-11 teams. Jaguars 17, Texans 10

Cardinals (-12 ½) at Lions
Denver, Arizona and Detroit's final three opponents — Atlanta, Seattle and Green Bay — should send the Vikings a fruit basket (extra goodies for CB Cam Dantzler) for taking the fight out the Lions by handing them their one and only history-avoiding win. Cardinals 40, Lions 20

Falcons (+9½) at 49ers
Atlanta is a good road team (5-2), but it's too soft to match the physical 49ers offense. And as tremendous as Cordarrelle Patterson has been this year, Atlanta doesn't have enough firepower offensively to keep its playoff hopes alive. 49ers 34, Falcons 24

Bengals (+2 ½) at Broncos
Cincinnati has lost two in a row and four of six. But Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Co. will outscore Teddy B's Dink and Dunkers. Bengals 28, Broncos 21

Packers (-7) at Ravens
Even if 2019 league MVP Lamar Jackson plays, put your money on 2020 league MVP Aaron Rodgers in the first potential meeting of two great but wildly different players. Packers 34, Ravens 28

Saints (+11½) at Buccaneers
Can a 44-year-old win his fourth league MVP 14 years after he won his first one? Yep. Tom Brady and the Bucs are rolling and will not fall to the Saints twice in one season. Buccaneers 34, Saints 20

Raiders (-1) at Browns
The last time Cleveland's players and coaching staff were decimated by COVID, they won a playoff game at Pittsburgh. They will find a way to win at home Monday against a free-falling Raiders team that's lost five of its past six games. Browns 23, Raiders 20

Washington (+7½) at Eagles
Washington is coming off a deflating loss and hurting at quarterback amid a COVID outbreak. The Eagles are coming off a bye and healthy again at quarterback and now doesn't have to play until Tuesday. Though Philly has won only one home game this year, look for the Eagles to keep their playoff hopes alive while sinking Washington's. Eagles 28, Washington 20

UPSET SPECIAL

Seahawks (+5½) at Rams
Everyone is back on the Rams' bandwagon, which can only mean one thing: It's time for it to tip over again, especially with the team in the middle of a COVID outbreak that has moved this game to Tuesday. These teams are a combined 4-0 with 130 points scored the past two weeks. Russell Wilson isn't going to the playoffs for the first time in his 10-year career. But he's back to playing well enough to destroy the Rams' hopes of gaining the NFC's homefield advantage. Seahawks 27, Rams 24

Last week's Upset Special: Washington (plus-4) 24, Cowboys 21. Actual score: Cowboys 27, Washington 20. Record: 7-6.

SEASON RESULTS

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 9-5/9-5.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 132-75-1/100-107-1.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 10-4/6-8.