Playoff race predictions: Mark Craig's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread

On this holiday weekend, 10 teams have both losing records and playoff possibilities, including the entire NFC South and the Packers.

December 22, 2022 at 6:52PM
Can Tom Brady and the Buccaneers pull away in the NFC South? (Chris O'Meara, Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The gift of parity and/or mediocrity has been doled out this Christmas season to 10 teams that have both losing records and playoff possibilities, including the entire NFC South, three-fourths of the AFC South and a certain hated rival that resides roughly 278 miles east of U.S. Bank Stadium.

Six teams have clinched a playoff berth, including the Vikings, while five have been eliminated, including the Bears. Five teams, including surging Detroit and slumping AFC South leader Tennessee, are 7-7 and in the thick of a playoff race.

Tom Brady and the 6-8, NFC South-leading Buccaneers are the only team in that division that's favored. They play at Arizona on Christmas.

Meanwhile, the Panthers, Saints and Falcons are all 5-9 and favored to lose on Christmas Eve.

The guess here?

Brady will win, the rest of the division will lose, and the G.O.A.T. will take a two-game lead on everyone heading into the final two weeks. Tampa Bay finishes with games against a Carolina team it lost two and an Atlanta team that it beat.

Here are this week's games:

THURSDAY'S GAME

Jaguars (-2½) at Jets: Don't look now, but Trevor Lawrence is making a playoff push with 14 TDs and one INT as the Jags have mounted a 4-2 run. Jaguars 34, Jets 30

SATURDAY'S NFC NORTH GAMES

Giants (+4½) at Vikings: Doubt 'em all you want, but they're 7-1 at home with six one-score wins, four of which were fourth-quarter comebacks, one of which was the greatest comeback in NFL history. Vikings 32, Giants 27

Lions (-2 ½) at Panthers: The Lions are 6-1 since their 1-6 start. A dangerous offense, a resurgent defense and a whole lot of confidence will carry them one step closer to a possible playoff berth. Lions 37, Panthers 34

Buffalo (-8 ½) at Bears: The Bears put up a great fight in losing to the Eagles 25-20 last week. But the sense here is their give-a-hoot tank has been emptied. Bills 40, Bears 21

SATURDAY'S OTHER GAMES

Falcons (+7 ½) at Ravens: Ravens by 3

Saints (+2 ½) at Browns: Browns by 3

Seahawks (+10½) at Chiefs: Chiefs by 10

Texans (+3½) at Titans: Titans by 7

Bengals (-3 ½) at Patriots: Patriots by 3

Commanders (+6½) at 49ers: 49ers by 10.

Eagles (+5 ½) at Cowboys: Cowboys by 3

Raiders (+2 ½) at Steelers: Steelers by 3

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Broncos (-2½) at Rams: Rams by 3

Buccaneers (-7½) at Cardinals: Buccaneers by 3

MONDAY'S GAME

Chargers (-4½) at Colts: Colts blow a big lead, lose to Vikings by three, bench Matt Ryan and beat the Chargers by three with a Nick Foles-led comeback the following week. What else would you expect of the Purple's charmed season? Colts 30, Chargers 27

UPSET SPECIAL

Packers (+4 ½) at Dolphins: Until you see their playoff death certificate, don't count Aaron Rodgers and the Packers out of that seventh seed and a return visit to U.S. Bank Stadium next month. (P.S. This, of course, jinxes the Packers, so you're welcome, Vikings fans). Packers 33, Dolphins 26

Last week's Upset Special: Titans (+3) 24, Chargers 21. Final: Chargers 17, Titans 14. Record: 4-11.

SEASON RESULTS

Straight up last week/season: 11-5/124-96-2.

Against the spread last week/season: 9-7/111-108-3.

Vikings picks: 8-6.

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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