Mark Craig's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread

It's January, there are two weeks left in the NFL's regular season and only one AFC team has clinched a playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the NFC has six teams, including the suddenly Kirk Cousins-less Vikings, that are fighting for the final two playoff spots while really, really, REALLY hoping they don't have to open the postseason with the Cowboys in Dallas. (Then again, the Vikings could rest easy knowing Cooper Rush probably wouldn't be starting.)

After muddling along for weeks offensively, Dallas finally erupted in Week 16, pounding out 59 points while Washington defenders were punching each other on the sideline.

The Cowboys hadn't scored that many points since reaching 59 in a win over the 49ers in 1980. With that outburst, Dallas now leads the NFL in two pretty decent categories: points scored (30.5) and takeaways (33).

Dallas also claimed the NFC East, which has now gone 17 seasons without a repeat winner.

In the AFC, Kansas City clinched the West for the sixth straight year. The Chiefs now travel to Cincinnati for the game of the week.

The Bengals lead the AFC North a year after finishing last. Should they finish on top, the NFL will have a rags-to-riches, worst-to-first division winner for the 17^th time in the past 19 seasons.

Last week, the NFL had eight games decided by double digits, including five by 20 or more points. The Vikings, of course, played a one-score game and lost for the eighth time in 14 one-score tries.

This week, four teams are favored by 12 ½ or more points. Nary a one of them has any chance of losing (famous last words), so the only upset this NFL guesstimator's got for a Week 17 Upset Special is Pittsburgh over Cleveland at home on Monday night.

Yes, we whiffed on Pittsburgh > Kansas City last week. And, no, Baker "INTERCEPTION!" Mayfield losing at this point does not feel like an upset.

UPDATED ODDS: Point spreads, money lines, over/under

Here's a look at this week's games, with no Thursday or Saturday matchups on the schedule:

Vikings (+13 ½) at Packers
The 2021 Vikings are 1-0 in shootouts with Aaron Rodgers. They'll need to win another one and, well, ain't gonna happen. Not at Lambeau Field in prime time. Not with a windchill of a bazillion below. And, oh yeah, not with Cousins capping the 2021 calendar year with a trip to the reserve/COVID-19 list. Rodgers, who threw for 385 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 148.4 passer rating in the Packers' 34-31 loss at U.S. Bank Stadium, will keep marching toward a fourth MVP and his second in two years. The Vikings are desperate and they do, of course, have a shot since they've won the past two meetings. You'll know the shootout's over the moment they kick their first red-zone field goal. Packers 34, Vikings 7

Falcons (+14 ½) at Bills
Buffalo is back on track (finally!) after scoring 64 points the past two weeks, including 33 against New England, the stingiest team in the league. Atlanta is too soft and too done to put up much of a fight in this one. Bills 41, Falcons 25

Rams (-5 ½) at Ravens
One 20-point rout after predicting the free-falling but always feisty Ravens had one more punch left, this NFL guessitmator is willing to say of Baltimore, "Time of death: Week 17." Rams 27, Ravens 17

Giants (+6) at Bears
You have to be awfully awful to be a six-point underdog against the Bears right now. The Giants certainly qualify. They'll lose a 12^th game for the third time in the past five years. Bears 26, Giants 16

Chiefs (-4 ½) at Bengals
On the bright side, last week's Upset Special (Steelers over Chiefs) was wrong by fewer than four touchdowns and four extra points. So this guy will stay clear of saying the Chiefs won't win a ninth straight game. But they won't cover! (Maybe.) Chiefs 31, Bengals 28

Dolphins (+3 ½) at Titans
Tennessee played the Thursday night game last week. Miami played the Monday nighter AND has to travel. Thanks, Mr. Schedule-Maker. The Miami Miracle run ends at seven straight. Titans 26, Dolphins 21

Raiders (+7) at Colts
Carson Wentz spend the week in COVID-19's crosshairs. As long as Indy kept Jonathan Taylor metaphorically wrapped in MVP-caliber bubble wrap, take the Colts at home. Colts 23, Raiders 20

Jaguars (+16 ½) at Patriots
Trevor Lawrence discovers the hard way that it's better to be picked by Bill Belichick than picked on by Bill Belichick. Patriots 33, Jaguars 3

Buccaneers (-13) at Jets
Tom Brady is not 5,000-0 against the Jets. It only feels that way (30-8). Buccaneers 30, Jets 10

Eagles (-4½) at Washington
Philly's running game won't be stopped. Plus, the only fight that's left in Washington is between bickering teammates. Eagles 28, Washington 20

Broncos (+7½) at Chargers
Go with the team that's had COVID-19 issues over the one that has a Drew Lock issue. Chargers 24, Broncos 20

Texans (+12 ½) at 49ers
Houston will get the full attention of the 49ers and their running game. 49ers 30, Texans 14

Cardinals (+6) at Cowboys
Another late-season Kingsbury Flop continues for Arizona as the Cowboys continue to throw fear into whoever draws them in the playoffs. Cowboys 34, Cardinals 28

Panthers (+6½) at Saints
Matt Rhule absolutely will not lose 11 games in each of his first two NFL seasons. Why not? Because he's going to lose 12 this year. Next up: at Saints, at Bucs. Saints 26, Panthers 23

Lions (+7) at Seahawks
In utterly meaningless games played in January, go with whichever team doesn't have to fly from Detroit to Seattle. Seahawks 19, Lions 14

UPSET SPECIAL

Browns (-3½) at Steelers
Cheer up, Browns fans. A few more game-wrecking interceptions in another gosh-awful game in prime time against a hated rival should officially keep the Browns from giving Baker Mayfield a contract they'll regret for the next half decade or so. Steelers 17, Browns 13

Last week's Upset Special: Steelers (+7) 24, Chiefs 20. Actual score: Chiefs 36, Steelers 10. Record: 7-9.

SEASON RESULTS

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 9-7/8-8.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 150-89-1/116-123-1.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 11-4/7-8.