Mark Craig's Week 18 NFL picks against the spread

The NFL has reached the end of its first 17-game regular season with only two of 16 games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Congratulations, Minneapolis and East Rutherford, N.J. You get to host Bears-Vikingzzzzz and WFT-Giantzzzzz.

On the flip side, Week 18 will end Sunday night with what should be an exciting play-in game between the Chargers (9-7) and the host Raiders (9-7). Assuming the Colts handle the Jaguars earlier in the day and Chargers-Raiders doesn't end in a tie, only the winner Sunday night will join Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, Philadelphia and possibly San Francisco as playoff qualifiers that missed the postseason last year.

So, Vikings fans, cheer up. You do have next year. You always have next year because for 32 years running, the NFL has now had at least four teams make the playoffs that didn't do so the year before.

Speaking of the Vikings, assuming their reserve/COVID-19 list doesn't runneth over again, they should ride the Kirk "The COVID Comeback Kid" Cousins to an utterly meaningless and totally pressure-free win over Da Bears. (When a pick is in doubt and neither team has anything to play for on Jan. 9, go with the team that doesn't have to travel.)

As for the final Upset Special of the season, this NFL guesstimator believes Bad Matthew Stafford to overpower Good Matthew Stafford as the Rams get swept by the 49ers, ending a five-game winning streak.

UPDATED ODDS: Point spreads, money lines, over/under

Here's a look at this weekend's games:

SATURDAY

Chiefs (-11) at Broncos
With the No. 1 seed still in play for Kansas City, there's no reason to think Patrick Mahomes won't raise his career record against Denver to 9-0. The Broncos are just going through the motions, having scored only 36 points while losing their last three games. Chiefs 34, Broncos 21

Cowboys (-4½) at Eagles
Dallas is most likely locked into the NFC's fourth seed. But owner Jerry Jones says the Cowboys are playing to win. Not a bad idea considering they just lost a key game against the Cardinals that cost them a chance at the No. 1 seed. The Eagles won four straight to sneak into the seventh seed. They should consider resting/rewarding starters and giving them fresher legs for the upcoming wild-card game. Cowboys 28, Eagles 23

SUNDAY

Bears (+5 ½) at Vikings
It could be an ugly atmosphere at U.S. Bank Stadium as fans voice their displeasure with Mike Zimmer missing the playoffs for the second year in a row. But Cousins will be back from the reserve/COVID-19 list and should excel in a zero-pressure home game. The Bears have won two in a row, but take the home team with the better quarterback in this meaningless season-ending affair. Vikings 24, Bears 21

Washington (-7) at Giants
Here's how three Giants head coaches have fared since Tom Coughlin retired after the 2015 season. Ben McAdoo: fired after 28 games (13-15). Pat Shurmur: fired after 32 games (9-23). Joe Judge: 10-22 through 32 games. Washington 13, Giants 9

Packers (-3½) at Lions
With nothing to play for, the Packers will rest starters and essentially hand the game to Detroit. The Lions, being the Lions, will fumble it back to Green Bay. Packers 21, Lions 20

Titans (-10) at Texans
Mike Vrabel should get some Coach of the Year consideration for going 5-3 and leading Tennessee to the doorstep of the AFC's No. 1 seed without Derrick Henry. One of the three losses was to Houston, but the Titans won't let that happen again. Not when a victory gives them the No. 1. Titans 30, Texans 10

Steelers (+3½) at Ravens
Ben Roethlisberger's Hall of Fame career will come to an end at 177-92-1, including a pair of Super Bowl wins. And, yes, Cleveland, it's too late to draft him. Ravens 23, Steelers 20

Bengals (+6) at Browns
Joe Burrow rests, which hurts the Bengals. The injured Baker Mayfield finally won't play, which helps the Browns, although it's too late, of course. Browns 23, Bengals 20

Colts (-15 ½) at Jaguars
Indy has perhaps the easiest last-week playoff-clinching scenario in league history: Beat the Jags and you're in. This one is a lock. Colts 27, Jaguars 3

Seahawks (+6½) at Cardinals
The Cardinals ended a three-game skid last week against Dallas. Now they need to avoid going backward, which they tend to do whenever things start to go well under Kliff Kingsbury. Cardinals 28, Seahawks 25

Saints (-3½) at Falcons
Arthur Smith has a long way to go in establishing some toughness with the Falcons, but his first step ends with an upset victory and eight wins, four more than last year's team. Falcons 27, Saints 24

Jets (+16½) at Bills
Needing only to beat the Jets to win the AFC East, Buffalo stomps on the gas and reaches a gear that Zach Wilson and the Jets simply don't have. Bills 50, Jets 19

Patriots (-6) at Dolphins
The Dolphins will score 17 points, like they did in beating the Patriots in the season opener. Only this time, the much-improved Pats will score two more touchdowns to give Bill Belichick 11 wins with Mac Jones at QB. Patriots 30, Dolphins 17

Panthers (+8) at Buccaneers
Look for the Bucs to rest players and pull Tom Brady early. Doesn't matter. The Bucs' JV can beat this team. Buccaneers 21, Panthers 7

Chargers (-3) at Raiders
Maybe the Raiders don't need to look for a new coach, after all. If the Colts beat the Jaguars and this game doesn't end in a tie, this is a play-in game. Raiders interim coach Rich Bisaccia has gone 6-5 since the Raiders were 3-2 when they parted with Jon Gruden. The Chargers got their offense rolling again last week against Denver, but this team also lost to Houston 41-29 two weeks ago. Raiders 32, Chargers 29

UPSET SPECIAL

49ers (+4) at Rams
With six interceptions in the past three games, Stafford is getting a bit heavy to carry heading into the playoffs. The Rams' five-game winning streak ends as they stumble into the playoffs. 49ers 24, Rams 21

Last week's Upset Special: Steelers (+3) 17, Browns 13. Actual score: Steelers 26, Browns 14. Record: 8-9.

SEASON RESULTS

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 13-3/8-8.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 163-92-1/124-131-1.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 12-4/8-8.