Mark Craig's Week 18 NFL picks: Can the Vikings get a nudge into the playoffs?

Considering the NFL's penchant for not making a lick of sense, it wouldn't be a breathtaking shock for the Vikings to get all the help they need to tush-push their way into the NFC playoff field on the final day of the 2023 regular season.

Oh, sure, The New York Times' playoff model puts the Vikings' chances at 3%. How in the world those folks arrive at that specific percentage is anyone's guess. But the NFL is littered annually with examples of slim-and-none shots becoming oh-my-goodness! upsets.

The help the Vikings need is as follows:

— A Bears win at Green Bay. (Chicago has won four of its last five).

— A Cardinals home win against Seattle. (Arizona just rocked the Eagles in Philly).

And either …

— An Atlanta win at New Orleans. (The Falcons beat the Saints in Week 12).

— A Panthers win at home against Tampa Bay. (The Panthers lost at Tampa Bay by a field goal on Dec. 3).

Of course, it's also entirely possible for the Vikings to get the mother of all Week 18 tush pushes and still lose at Detroit, which is the only thing they can control.

Here are five games to watch in the final week of the regular season:

Vikings (+3 ½) at Lions: Reasons not to pick the Vikings: 26, the league-high number of turnovers attributed to their QBs this season. Lions 31, Vikings 20

Bears (+2 ½) at Packers: The surging Bears bequeath full ownership of the NFC North basement to Minnesota by closing with a fifth win in six games. Bears 27, Packers 24

Seahawks (-2 ½) at Cardinals: Ask the Eagles how lucky they were to play the lowly Cardinals last week. And that game was in Philly. Cardinals 31, Seahawks 26

Bills (-2 ½) at Dolphins: Miami is 1-4 and has been outscored by 84 points against teams that now have a winning record. Bills 34, Dolphins 31 OT

Season record straight up/against the spread: 56-49; 46-59.

Upset special: 5-12.

Lock of the Week: 14-3.