Mark Craig's Week 18 NFL picks: Can the Vikings get a nudge into the playoffs?

It's entirely possible for the Vikings to get all the help they need to make the playoffs. But will they help themselves vs. the Lions?

January 5, 2024 at 10:36PM
Quarterback Justin Fields and the Bears, winners of four of five, could play spoiler in the NFC playoff race. (David Banks, Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Considering the NFL's penchant for not making a lick of sense, it wouldn't be a breathtaking shock for the Vikings to get all the help they need to tush-push their way into the NFC playoff field on the final day of the 2023 regular season.

Oh, sure, The New York Times' playoff model puts the Vikings' chances at 3%. How in the world those folks arrive at that specific percentage is anyone's guess. But the NFL is littered annually with examples of slim-and-none shots becoming oh-my-goodness! upsets.

— A Bears win at Green Bay. (Chicago has won four of its last five).

— A Cardinals home win against Seattle. (Arizona just rocked the Eagles in Philly).

And either …

— An Atlanta win at New Orleans. (The Falcons beat the Saints in Week 12).

Or …

— A Panthers win at home against Tampa Bay. (The Panthers lost at Tampa Bay by a field goal on Dec. 3).

Of course, it's also entirely possible for the Vikings to get the mother of all Week 18 tush pushes and still lose at Detroit, which is the only thing they can control.

Here are five games to watch in the final week of the regular season:

WHAT WILL THE VIKINGS DO?

Vikings (+3 ½) at Lions: Reasons not to pick the Vikings: 26, the league-high number of turnovers attributed to their QBs this season. Lions 31, Vikings 20

AROUND THE NFC NORTH

Bears (+2 ½) at Packers: The surging Bears bequeath full ownership of the NFC North basement to Minnesota by closing with a fifth win in six games. Bears 27, Packers 24

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Cowboys (-12 ½) at Commanders: How do you wake a 3-5 road slumber? Visit Washington, which is 1-6 at home, has lost seven straight and doesn't give two hoots. Cowboys 31, Commanders 3

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Seahawks (-2 ½) at Cardinals: Ask the Eagles how lucky they were to play the lowly Cardinals last week. And that game was in Philly. Cardinals 31, Seahawks 26

GAME OF THE WEEK

Bills (-2 ½) at Dolphins: Miami is 1-4 and has been outscored by 84 points against teams that now have a winning record. Bills 34, Dolphins 31 OT

SEASON RESULTS

Season record straight up/against the spread: 56-49; 46-59.

Upset special: 5-12.

Lock of the Week: 14-3.

Vikings: 10-6.

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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