NFC North picks for Week 3: Bright spots in Chicago and Green Bay amid QB questions
The Minnesota Star Tribune’s Mark Craig takes a spin around the NFC North and finds rookie growing pains for the Lions, third-down prowess for the Bears and a reliance on the run for the Packers.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
September 20, 2024 at 5:00PM
In Detroit, rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold is experiencing some serious growing pains with four major penalties in two games. The 24th overall pick out of Alabama was flagged 41 yards for pass interference and 15 yards for a personal foul facemask penalty in last week’s loss to the Bucs. He was penalized twice for 28 yards for pass interference against the Rams in Week 1.
In Chicago, the Bears held the Texans to a 28.6% success rate on third down (4 of 14) in a Week 2 loss. They limited the Titans to 21.4% (3 of 14) in a Week 1 win. Overall, the Bears are tied for third in third-down defense (25.0%). The Vikings rank 16th (32.14%).
In Green Bay, it was no Jordan Love, no problem in Week 2. The 53 rushing attempts in the win over the Colts were the most the Packers have had in a game since they ran 54 times in a 10-10 tie with the Vikings on Nov. 26, 1978. The Packers had 164 yards rushing in the first quarter, their most since 1985; 237 yards rushing at the half, their most since 1978; and 261 for the game, their most since 2003.
The picks
Texans (-2½) at Vikings
Sunday, noon
The Vikings (2-0) have shown us they’re good. They showed us they could raise their physical play to exceed the 49ers’ NFC gold standard. Now, can they sustain it, or do they succumb to what would be a natural letdown against Danielle Hunter and the tough-minded Texans (2-0)? The guess here is the former because they’re at home and because their standout defense is confident and primed to get even nastier. Vikings 19, Texans 17
Packers (+2½) at Titans
Sunday, noon
Sorry, but the Malik Willis revenge game will fall short in the QB’s return to Tennessee (0-2). This week, it’s the Packers (1-1) who will lose a close game to a team that runs the ball and plays good run defense. Titans 20, Packers 17
Bears (+1½) at Colts
Sunday, noon
People are so down on Caleb Williams, he’s bound to rise up to at least some sort of respectability as 1-1 Chicago’s running game takes advantage of the 0-2 Colts’ last-place run defense (237.0) to help Matt Eberflus’ defense scratch out a second win. Bears 16, Colts 14
Lions (-3) at Cardinals
Sunday, 3:05 p.m.
Detroit (1-1) should be able to win a shootout with Jared Goff and the offense breaking out while Aidan Hutchinson and the defense contain Kyler Murray and Arizona (1-1) just enough to move past last week’s upset loss to Tampa Bay at home. Lions 34, Cardinals 30
Season results
Record/vs. spread: 5-3/6-2.
Vikings pick/vs. spread: 0-2/0-2.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is completing more passes more often for more touchdowns than he ever has. “What we’re trying to get from Sam is to play the best football of his career,” coach Kevin O'Connell said.
