Mark Craig's Week 4 NFL picks against the spread

Week 3 was a blast to watch but a nightmare for rookie quarterbacks (0-5 with seven interceptions while being outscored 111-47) and for this NFL guesstimator against the spread (5-12).

But we're on to Week 4. Five teams are 3-0, including the Cardinals and Rams, who meet in Los Angeles in what normally would be the game of the week.

This week, of course, that designation belongs to Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick in Foxborough. (If only Bill had an experienced quarterback, he might not be a home underdog in this one).

The guess here is three of the unbeatens – Raiders, Panthers and Cardinals – lose. On the flip side, the guess here is the Lions rise from the ranks of winless teams, leaving the Jets, Jags, Colts and Giants still alive for the league's first 0-17 season.

Yes, the Lions are the Upset Special of the Week – make that the 3-0 and Still Undefeated Upset Special of the Week. The NFL gods owe them a win at Chicago.

Fifty-one years ago, Tom Dempsey kicked a record 63-yard field goal at the buzzer to beat the Lions 19-17. Last Sunday, Justin Tucker kicked a record 66-yarder at the buzzer to beat the Lions – yep, you guessed it – 19-17.

And Vikings fans think they're jinxed by kickers.

Read more: Updated spreads, money lines and over/under

Here's a look at this week's games:

Browns (-2) at Vikings: Browns 30, Vikings 23
The Browns certainly won't have the 20-point, 9-sack layup they had against an overwhelmed Bears quarterback Justin Fields in Cleveland last week. The Vikings' defense will benefit tremendously from home-field advantage while Kirk Cousins and the offense rides a two-game stretch with confident and competent offensive line play (Finally!). The Browns, however, have the running game, the defense and the quick-strike, play-action ability to enable Kevin Stefanski to beat his old boss, Mike Zimmer, at his own old-school game on the road.

Titans (-7½) at Jets: Titans by 14
The Jets have no offense. The Titans have too much Derrick Henry. Simple pick for a road team.

Chiefs (-7½) at Eagles: Chiefs by 10
Patrick Mahomes falling to 1-3? No way. Andy Reid gets his 100^th win with the Chiefs in the city that fired him after winning 140 games for the Eagles.

Panthers (+5) at Cowboys: Cowboys by 7
Carolina isn't the same team without Christian McCaffrey. Throw in home-field advantage and Dak Prescott's rolling start to the season, and, well, Sam Darnold's 3-0 feel-good story hits its first snag.

Giants (+7½) at Saints: Saints by 10
New Orleans gets its first real home game after having to play the Packers in Jacksonville in Week 1 because of Hurricane Ida. Coming off a solid performance at New England, the Bree-less Saints ride the home crowd and a winless Giants team to a 3-1 start.

Texans (+16½) at Bills: Bills by 24
The last time the Bills were involved in a 17-point spread, they were underdogs when they defeated the Vikings in 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in the NFL's biggest upset in 23 years. They did it with a rookie quarterback, Josh Allen. Let's just say rookie Davis Mills won't be duplicating that feat in his first road start.

Colts (+1½) at Dolphins: Dolphins by 3
If Miami plays as well at home as it did in Vegas last week, former Colts QB Jacoby Brissett drops current Colts QB Carson Wentz to 0-4.

Washington (-1½) at Falcons: Falcons by 3
Hey, Washington! Where's the stellar defense? Where's that great pass rush? We're waiting. Bad home team beats bad road team.

Seahawks (+2½) at 49ers: 49ers by 7
In a high-scoring game, Seattle drops to 1-3 because the Legion of Blah can't cover anybody.

Cardinals (+5) at Rams: Rams by 3
The urge is to pick the upset because the Cardinals can outrace anyone in a Game of the Week shootout. But the Rams are the best, most well-rounded team in the league and Matthew Stafford is playing like the MVP.

Steelers (+6½) at Packers: Packers by 14
The toothless Steelers mounted one pressure on Burrows at home last week. Aaron Rodgers has his way in a game between two teams racing in opposite directions.

Ravens (+1) at Broncos: Broncos by 3
Teddy Bridgewater and the unbeaten Broncos have disposed of three teams with an 0-9 record. But Teddy and the D pass this test against a Baltimore team that needed a record 66-yard field goal to win at Detroit.

Buccaneers (-6½) at Patriots: Buccaneers by 8
In the long-awaited Brady vs. Belichick Bowl, go with the better team that has the quarterback who's played 301 more games.

Raiders (+3 ½) at Chargers: Chargers by 7
A week after outplaying Mahomes in his backyard, Justin Herbert uses the prime-time home game Monday night to take down the surprise Raiders and make an early dent in Derek Carr's MVP case.

UPSET SPECIAL

Lions (+3) at Bears: Lions 19, Bears 9
The Lions have had three good halves of football. Unfortunately, their three bad halves — and the greatest walk-off field goal in NFL history — has them sitting at 0-3. Facing Fields and no kickers capable of making 66-yarders will result in Detroit finally biting its first kneecap of the Dan Campbell era.

Last week's Upset Special: Vikings (+-2) 33, Seahawks 30. Actual score: Vikings 30, Seahawks 17. Record: 3-0.

SEASON RESULTS

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 10-6/5-11.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 31-17/23-25.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 2-1/1-2.