Mark Craig's Week 5 NFL picks against the spread

A (seemingly) easier week of picking NFL games awaits in Week 5. Famous last words.

Matt Patricia helping the Lions to another loss is a no-brainer in New England. Ditto for Tom Brady avoiding a 2-3 start, Patrick Mahomes beating Vegas, Kenny Pickett losing to Josh Allen, and Justin Jefferson scoring way more points than Justin Fields at U.S. Bank Stadium.

As for take-it-to-the-bank-only-if-you're-a-fool-or-rich-or-both upsets, go with the Seahawks, Bengals, Browns, Jets and Cooper Rush (Sorry, Coop, for picking you to lose to Carson Wentz last week. It will not happen again).

Meanwhile, the Eagles will stay undefeated and the Texans will remain utterly defeated.

Here are this week's picks:

Colts (+3 ½) at Broncos: Indianapolis is terrible on the road (see: 24-zip loss at Jacksonville). Running back Jonathan Taylor, who's rushed for only 113 yards on 41 carries (2.8) the past two weeks, has an ankle injury and will not play. And Denver's Russell Wilson is starting to connect on some deeper throws that Indy's back seven could struggle to stop. Broncos 28, Colts 19

Bears (+7½) at Vikings: Unless the game gets moved to Soldier Field during a torrential downpour (see: Week 1 Bears vs. 49ers), Chicago doesn't have the firepower with Fields to hang with Jefferson and the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Bears are 31^st in scoring (16.0) and have scored only 22 points in two road games. Vikings 31, Bears 17

Giants (+7½) vs. Packers: London will get another close one as the Giants' top-ranked rushing attack finds its footing against a Packers run defense that wobbled almost badly enough to lose to New England rookie third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe last week. But, in the end, Aaron Rodgers will make all the bad go away. Again. Packers 24, Giants 21

Lions (+3½) at Patriots: It doesn't matter who Bill Belichick puts on the field for the Patriots. He'll win. The Lions scored 45 points on 520 yards last week. And lost! They can't stop anybody. Patriots 30, Lions 20

Eagles (-5½) at Cardinals: Philly gets its first 5-0 start since its 2004 Super Bowl run. Eagles by 7

Dolphins (-3 ½) at Jets: Robert Saleh's Jets are pushovers no more. Jets by 7

Titans (-2 ½) at Commanders: Carson Wentz, on the other hand, is. Titans by 7

Falcons (+9½) at Buccaneers: Tom Brady falling to 2-3 just does not compute. Buccaneers by 10

Steelers (+13½) at Bills: Neither does Kenny Pickett winning his NFL debut vs. Josh Allen. Bills by 10

Texans (+6½) at Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence had five turnovers and almost won at Philly. Jaguars by 10

Chargers (-2½) at Browns: Kevin Stefanski's yo-yo season continues. Browns by 3

49ers (-6½) at Panthers: A trip to Carolina cures San Francisco's road woes. 49ers by 7

Cowboys (+5 ½) at Rams: Cooper Rush does it again as Cowboys fans take over So-Fi. Cowboys by 3

Bengals (+3½) at Ravens: Joe Burrow and the Bengals are back. Bengals by 6

Raiders (+6½) at Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is at home, in prime time, playing a team he's faced eight times while going 7-1 with 22 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 112.3 passer rating. Chiefs 34, Raiders 24

Seahawks (+5 ½) at Saints: A physically beat-up Saints team returns home from London a mentally beat-up team as well after the double-doink loss to the Vikings. Now comes red-hot Geno Smith — yeah, that Geno Smith — who torched the Lions last week while completing 76.7% of his 30 passes for 320 yards, a 10.7-yard average per attempt, and seven carries for 49 yards and a touchdown. Seahawks 28, Saints 25

Last week's Upset Special: Commanders (+3) 21, Cowboys 19. Score: Cowboys 25, Commanders 10. Record: 2-2.

Straight up last week/season: 7-9/31-31-1.

Against the spread last week/season: 6-10/25-38.

Vikings picks: 3-1.