Not Much To Complain About This Weekend - Colder In Time For Thanksgiving

There was very little change in the drought update which was issued on Thursday from the National Drought Mitigation Center. While most categories stayed steady, the amount of Minnesota under at least Abnormally Dry conditions decreased by a tenth of a percent. We continue to track D3 (Extreme) Drought across far southeastern Minnesota.

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Well, Thursday got a lot warmer than I even expected! On the back of those strong southerly winds, MSP was able to hit 69F for a high - breaking the record of 68F from 1953 and 1931. Eau Claire, Rhinelander, and Marquette also saw record highs.

Warmest Highs Between November 15-December 31 On Record For The Twin Cities

The high of 69F is tied for the 2nd warmest high on or after November 15th in the metro. The only warmer day was November 17, 1953, which reached 71F.

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Mainly sunny conditions will dominate the skies on Saturday in the metro, with morning temperatures down around 30F and highs in the low 50s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected across the state on Saturday with highs ranging from the 40s up north to near 60F in southwestern Minnesota. A nice mid-November day to once again be outside!

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Sunday: We will see almost an exact repeat of Saturday, but we will start to see some clouds moving in across southern and central Minnesota during the afternoon hours. Highs once again reach the low 50s.

Monday: This will be the start of the next temperature downturn, with highs only reaching the mid-40s under mainly cloudy skies. We will watch the chance for some overnight showers (even possibly a mix) in the metro.

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Behind that rain/mixed chance Monday Night, we will see a dramatic cooldown with highs for the second half of next week feeling more like winter than fall. Highs will reach the mid-30s Tuesday, then be stuck in the upper 20s to around 30F for the big travel day Wednesday, Thanksgiving Thursday, and Black Friday. Some flurries or light snow could be possible across northern Minnesota next Wednesday and Thursday, but it currently looks dry in the metro.

An early look at Thanksgiving Day Thursday for the metro shows quiet weather in place, but chilly conditions for any outdoor pick-up games of football. After starting the day in the mid-teens, highs are expected to reach the mid-20s. With strong westerly winds gusting to 30 mph, it'll feel like the single digits and teens for most of the day.

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A Fine Weekend - Snow Drought Persists
By Paul Douglas

Where's the snow, Paul? Um, Canada. Rockies. Not here. No accumulating snow has fallen at Twin Cities International Airport in November. Last year (La Nina cool phase of the Pacific) the metro picked up 4" of snow by November 18. Our average first 1" of persistent snowcover at MSP is November 21, according to NOAA.

I don't see any snow through the weekend after Thanksgiving, and we could - in theory - go the entire month with no snow.

Average MSP November snowfall (in case anyone asks) is 6.8", looking at data from 1991-2020. We are seeing less snow in November than winter seasons from 1981-2010, when an average of 9.3" snow fell. It's not your imagination: winter has been pushed back a few weeks.

Welcome to a lovely weekend with sunshine, light winds and low to mid 50s - still 10-15F warmer than average. Big storms sail south of Minnesota until further notice, but colder air will seep south of the border next week with highs near 32F in time for Thanksgiving. BTW November 1991 brought 46.9" snow. Yikes!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake up 31. High 54. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine, still mild. Wake up 33. High 53. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 10-15 mph.

MONDAY: Clouds increase, showers stay south. Wake up 38. High 48. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny, windy and cooler. Wake up 32. High 42. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Dry travel, heavy jackets return. Wake up 27. High 40. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny but chilly Thanksgiving. Wake up 23. High 32. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Chilly. Good shopping weather. Wake up 22. High 33. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 18th

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 26 minutes, and 59 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 15 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Sunlight? December 3rd (8 hours, 59 minutes, 24 seconds)
*When Is Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM? December 1st (7:30 AM)
*What Is The Earliest Sunset? December 8th-14th (4:31 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
November 18th

1994: 58 to 69 mph wind gusts result in isolated damage to structures across south central and southeastern Minnesota. Some of the counties included were Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Le Sueur, Nicollet, Rice, Steele, and Waseca.

1979: A heat wave continues in Southwest Minnesota. The temperature hits 70 degrees at Browns Valley.

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A low departing the northeastern United States will continue to produce rain and snow in the region, especially in the morning hours. A couple of systems near the west coast will bring rain and snow concerns. Meanwhile, a batch of storms will occur Saturday Night across the Central Plains.

Some of the heaviest rain through Sunday will be along the west coast, where some areas could come away with 2-3" of rainfall.

A foot or two of snow could fall through the weekend across the Sierra and Cascades, with lighter snow amounts eastward toward the Rockies. A couple of inches could also fall in parts of New England.

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Price for huge Xcel transmission line more than doubles to $1.14B

More from the Star Tribune: "The price of a massive Xcel Energy transmission line across southwest and central Minnesota — which would connect more wind and solar farms — has more than doubled to $1.14 billion. The higher price tag reflects inflation and supply chain issues, plus other factors such as a longer route — and, if approved by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, costs would be passed on to customers. The Xcel line is not the only one facing cost increases. Minnesota Power's plan to upgrade a 465-mile transmission line running from North Dakota to northeastern Minnesota was estimated early in 2022 to cost $700 million. Now, the Duluth-based company says it will cost between $800 million and $940 million."

3 takeaways from Biden's big transmission plan

More from E&E News: "Thousands of miles of new power lines are needed to send clean electricity across the U.S. to meet ambitious climate goals. The looming question for the Biden administration is how to get them built. That could involve a previously constrained authority to site new long-distance power lines in the most neglected and congested parts of the country — and speed up development, which often takes a decade or more. A long-awaited study released by the Department of Energy last month laid out the areas of the country with the biggest transmission needs. DOE could soon spell out its plan to use the siting authority — which was strengthened by the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law — to pave the way for national transmission corridors. Some energy experts argue that program could alter the course of electricity development as the Biden administration seeks a carbon-free U.S. grid by 2035."

Wildfires are thawing the tundra

More from High Country News: "Chunks of carbon-rich frozen soil, or permafrost, undergird much of the Arctic tundra. This perpetually frozen layer sequesters carbon from the atmosphere, sometimes storing it for tens of thousands of years beneath the boggy ground. The frozen soil is insulated by a cool wet blanket of plant litter, moss and peat. But if that blanket is incinerated by a tundra wildfire, the permafrost becomes vulnerable to thawing. And when permafrost thaws, it releases the ancient carbon, which microbes in the soil then convert into methane — a potent greenhouse gas whose release contributes to climate change and the radical reshaping of Northern latitudes across the globe."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser