Nothing I Say Today Will Shock You

ECMWF (the European model) prints out 1-3" rain for central Minnesota (including much of the metro) by Friday. I hope it's right this time. Soak up squalls of rain, growls of thunder and 60s later this week, because 20s and 30s will be the rule next week. With a dash of snow. Check the blog to more details. -Todd Nelson

November 8, 2022 at 4:05AM

Election Day Weather

Here's the weather outlook for Minneapolis on Election Day Tuesday. Weather conditions will be quiet in the morning and turn more unsettled late in the day.

Election Day Weather For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Election Day Weather

Here's the weather outlook for Election Day Tuesday, which shows temps running slightly above average on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. There will be isolated showers and storms late in the day.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Tuesday will start off in the mid 30s with highs warming into the low 50s by the afternoon with rain and thunderstorms possible. Southeasterly winds will be breezy with gusts up to 25mph-30mph at times.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall

If you look at the precipitation deficit for the season (since September 1st) the deficit is even greater. Many locations are well below average with the Twin Cities now 5.20" below average since September 1st.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since September 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is now more than 10" below average for the year, which is the 16th driest start to any year on record (through November 7th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.50" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

US Drought Update For Minnesota (US Drought Update/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wetter Week Ahead, Then Cold

Here's the weather outlook through the week ahead, which shows several days of rain (and thunder) potential across the Upper Midwest prior to a big snow event across the Dakotas and far northern Minnesota. Winter weather headlines have been issues across the Dakotas, where heavy snow will fall later this week.

Weather Outlook Through AM Sunday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

Here's precipitation outlook over the next several days, which shows heavy precipitation over the next several days. Some spots could see 2" to 3" or more of rainfall, which is much needed. Cross your fingers.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows warmer than average temps in place through midweek with temps warming 10F to 15F above average for early November. Readings will be quite a bit cooler later in the week with temps only warming into the 20s and 30s by late week/weekend.

Extended Precipitation Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows unsettled weather in place over the next several days with several inches of rain possible through the end of the week. Temps take a big hit late week/weekend with highs only warming in the 20s and 30s.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. The NBM Model shows mild midweek temps, then well below average readings late week and into the weekend.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temps in place across much of the nation and especially across the Upper Midwest into mid month.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across the Great Lakes region with more active weather in place across the Gulf Coast and the Pacific Northwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Nothing I Say Today Will Shock You
By Paul Douglas

It's 2022. Nothing shocks me anymore. If aliens landed on the White House Lawn singing "We Are The World" I'd be surprised. Not shocked. Florida hurricanes in November? Sure why not. 60s and T-storms in Minnesota? Makes sense. Accumulating snow next week? Bring it. The last few years have left us all uncomfortably numb.

Election Day 2022 will bring PM showers to Minnesota, flooding rains for California and "Nicole" pushing a pinwheel of rain and wind toward Florida. It may reach hurricane status before hitting north of Palm Beach Wednesday night.

According to friend and former National Hurricane Center Communications Officer Dennis Feltgen, the last hurricane to hit the Florida (Panhandle) was "Kate" in 1985.

ECMWF (the European model) prints out 1-3" rain for central Minnesota (including much of the metro) by Friday. I hope it's right this time. Soak up squalls of rain, growls of thunder and 60s later this week, because 20s and 30s will be the rule next week. With a dash of snow. Shocked? Me neither.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Breezy with PM showers. Winds: SE 15-25. High: 52.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloud with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds: S 15-30. Low: 50.

WEDNESDAY: Showers and heavy T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. High: 63

THURSDAY: More showers, strong T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 53. High: 66.

FRIDAY: Gusty. Light snow and flurries. Winds: NW 20-40. Wake-up: 32. High: 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. feels like teens. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 24. High: 29.

SUNDAY: More sun. Typical for late December. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 30.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds. Where did fall go? Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 19. High: 32.

This Day in Weather History

November 8th

1999: A November 'heat wave' impacts much of the state. Temperatures in the 70's and 80's are recorded in Minnesota with records shattered in many places. The Twin Cities had 73 degrees, while Canby saw 82.

1943: A severe ice storm hits the Twin Cities, and heavy snow falls over southwest Minnesota. One person died in St. Paul as a trolley car slid off the tracks and hit a pole. A Minneapolis man died shoveling snow. Many telephone poles were down due to the ice. Places like Worthington, Windom, and Marshall saw 14 to 16 inches of snow.

1870: The first storm warning for the Great Lakes is issued by the U.S. Army.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 8th

Average High: 46F (Record: 77F set in 1999)

Average Low: 31F (Record: 1F set in 1991)

Record Rainfall: 1.51" set in 1932

Record Snowfall: 8.5" set in 1943

Twin Cities Almanac For November 8th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 8th

Sunrise: 7:01am

Sunset: 4:52pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 51 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 36 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 48 minutes

Moon Phase for November 8th at Midnight

0.8 Days After Full "Beaver" Moon

"5:02 a.m. CST - At this point of the year, it's time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. It's also called the Frosty Moon. The year's second total lunar eclipse occurs with this full moon. The eclipse will be visible in its entirety over western North America; in central and eastern regions, moonset will intervene during the latter part of the umbral stages and the moon will set as the total phase begins along the Atlantic seaboard. As was the case in May, totality will last 85 minutes."

Moon Phase For November 8th at Midnight (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows warmer than average temps across much of the Central US and cooler than average temps in the Western US, where unsettled weather will be in place.

National Weather Outlook on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows unsettled weather in place across the Western US with areas of rain and snow.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday turns a little more active across the western half of the nation.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will develop across the Upper Midwest with several inches of precipitation across the Great Lakes. There will also be heavy precipitation amounts across the high elevations out West.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), there will be heavy snowfall amounts in the Sierra Nevadas and the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be heavy amounts in the High Plains and into Canada.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Past eight years eight hottest on record, UN report warns"

"The past eight years are on track to be the hottest ever recorded, a United Nations report has found, as UN chief Antonio Guterres warned that the planet was sending "a distress signal". The UN's weather and climate body released its annual state of the global climate report on Sunday with another warning that the target to limit temperature increases to 1.5C (2.7F) was "barely within reach". The acceleration of heat waves, glacier melts and torrential rains has led to a rise in natural disasters, the World Meteorological Organization said as the UN's COP27 climate summit opened in the Red Sea resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. "As COP27 gets under way, our planet is sending a distress signal," said Guterres, who described the report as "a chronicle of climate chaos". Representatives from nearly 200 states gathered in Egypt will discuss how to keep the rise in temperatures to 1.5C, as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a goal some scientists say is now unattainable. Earth has warmed more than 1.1C since the late 19th century with roughly half of that increase occurring in the past 30 years, the report showed."

"NASA's New Horizons mission begins again at the edge of the solar system"

"On New Year's Day three years ago, a small spacecraft zoomed by a chunk of ice billions of miles away, and scientists on Earth cheered. That was the second time the New Horizons probe got up close and personal with an object in the far-away Kuiper Belt—after capturing images of Pluto, its first target, in unprecedented detail. Now, New Horizons has a third chance to revolutionize how astronomers see the distant parts of our solar system. On October 1, the spacecraft began the third phase of its life: the 2nd Kuiper Belt Extended Mission, or KEM2 for short. Every few years, each NASA mission—yes, even the 45-year-old Voyager—undergoes a formal review in which administrators decide whether the project should continue. SOFIA, NASA's observatory-on-an-airplane, was just a victim of this process, shutting down operations on September 30, the end of the administration's fiscal year. New Horizons, on the other hand, was successfully renewed this summer for a two-year extension to its operations as it continues flying farther out of the solar system."

"This clear window coating could cool buildings without using energy"

"Scientists have used advanced computing tech and AI to design a clear window coating that could lower the temperature inside buildings, thus saving a whole lot of cooling energy. Cooling accounts for about 15% of global energy consumption, and it's only going to get hotter, especially in more tropical climates. The sun's ultraviolet and near-infrared light are the parts of the solar spectrum that pass through window glass to heat an enclosed room. If window coating blocked that light and if that coating radiated "heat from the window's surface at a wavelength that passes through the atmosphere into outer space," energy use from cooling could be reduced, according to the American Chemical Society."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

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Todd Nelson

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