Numbers don't tell the entire story with Vikings' offseason choices

In talking at the NFL scouting combine a little less than two weeks ago, Vikings coach Mike Zimmer made it sound like the team hopes to retain veteran defensive end Everson Griffen but is prepared to move on from safety Anthony Harris.

Does this really make sense?

First take: Michael Rand

Two things make me curious about this. First, Harris is four years younger (28 vs. 32). Aging curves in the NFL are based on averages, not individuals, but it stands to reason that Harris will be productive longer.

And if we lived only inside a Pro Football Focus player grade bubble, Harris was the No. 2-rated safety in the NFL last year (just ahead of teammate Harrison Smith, who was No. 30).

Griffen was good — ranking No. 21 among all defensive ends in a nice bounceback season — but not as good as Harris. I'm sure it comes down to a combination of money and how much Zimmer values each position, but it's still a bit of a head-scratcher.

Vikings writer Ben Goessling: It might be a head-scratcher in the sense of Harris' age and his productivity, but it's consistent with how the Vikings have valued the position.

They bowed out of free-agent bidding for Devin McCourty and George Iloka in years past when the prices got too rich. They've improved (from Robert Blanton to Andrew Sendejo and then to Harris) opposite Harrison Smith, but that progression suggests they think they can find a low-cost starter opposite Smith.

When you're in as tight a cap situation as the Vikings — who have more than $199 million of cap charges on their 2020 books, before any moves — Harris might be a luxury they can't afford.

Rand: Those are good points about their history with safeties, and it is worth noting that fellow Viking Jayron Kearse finished as the No. 4-graded safety per PFF last season (though with just 271 total snaps he didn't have nearly the workload as the other two). Maybe Zimmer's system offers enough of a plug-and-play option that a certain profile of safety can succeed. That's a risky assumption, but as you say, maybe it's one a cap-strapped team has to make.

Griffen's future production is another question. It's a spot where it would be tempting to think a younger, cheaper solution could be the way to go.

Goessling: I'm very curious to see what happens with Griffen. My sense has been the Vikings will try to appeal to his loyalties and sell him on the benefits of staying in the community he's called home.

That might be their best play; he's a 10-year veteran who's said he wants to be a "Viking for life," and after an eight-sack season, I don't know that they're going to be able to pay him market value. But I do think he's going to have other suitors — I'd keep an eye on Seattle especially, where the pull of Pete Carroll (his old college coach) and Russell Wilson could be strong.

I think the Vikings envision a bigger role for Ifeadi Odenigbo, and they could bring back Stephen Weatherly, so they might be OK without Griffen. But if they can get Griffen back affordably, I'm sure they'd love to have him.

Rand: "If they can get Player X back affordably" is pretty much the story of the offseason, isn't it?

Goessling: Alas, the trips to Manny's might be at a minimum this year.