Will win/should win:
Yuh-jung Youn
"Minari"
Role: Soonja, the grandmother from South Korea who helps a family come together.
In her favor: American audiences are unlikely to be familiar with this Korean star, a fact she capitalizes on by repeatedly surprising us with Soonja's bluntly hilarious behavior. A veteran who's also sort of a newcomer, she may strike a nice balance for voters.
Then again: Does her unfamiliarity leave her without a voting constituency?
The rest:
Maria Bakalova
"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"
Role: Tutar, Borat's long-suffering but surprisingly game daughter.
In her favor: Not only is there a huge level of difficulty in writer/star Sacha Baron Cohen's improvised way of working with nonprofessionals, but Bakalova completely vanishes into her role.
Then again: Bakalova has a future in the movie biz but she doesn't have much of a past. The others in her category all do.