Perceptions on crime in the U.S. don't keep up with reality

Cities can be like people in at least one respect — it can be tough to shake a bad reputation.

A recent New York Times quiz revealed some common misperceptions about crime trends, the most widely held of which involved Chicago. Readers were asked to rank Chicago nationally in murder rate. The options were first, third, fifth or seventh. Most picked "first," and only 8% chose the right answer (seventh).

Chicago has struggled mightily to contain violence, but its reputation has probably also been shaped by portrayals in film and TV, news coverage, and political messaging.

Former President Donald Trump repeatedly criticized Chicago, saying it was "worse than Afghanistan." And conservatives have long depicted Chicago as a crime capital. The reasons could include an opportunity to fault President Barack Obama for not keeping his home city safe and to argue that gun restrictions are not able to stop violent crime. Defenders of those restrictions point out that nearby states have lax gun regulations and thus undercut Chicago's efforts.

In general, Republicans have found big liberal cities inviting targets for criticism as part of racial politics.

New York also tends to be viewed as violent. It endured 2,245 murders in 1990, but by 2017, the number had fallen below 300.

Readers fared a little better in assessing the trend in New York. Still, 44% did not know that its murder rate has been below the national average in recent years, including last year.

A Pew Research report in 2016 found that "voters are usually more likely to say crime is up than down, regardless of what official statistics show." For decades, Gallup has asked people whether they think there is more or less crime in the United States compared with the year before. The question has been asked almost yearly since 1996, and every year except for 2001 the public — usually by overwhelming margins — has said crime has increased.

Some research shows that public demand drives coverage of bad news — that people have a "negativity bias," a predisposition to focus on and remember negative information, possibly an evolutionary adaptation.

In other words, people tend to be more interested in hearing about potential threats they can act upon, like an approaching hurricane, a new virus or a crime spree that has been reported nearby.

The rise in the murder rate for 2020 is expected to be around 25%, the largest increase in U.S. history in records dating to 1960. That equates to about 20,000 murders last year.

And yet overall crime went down, a fact that only 28% of readers knew. The FBI will release its official figures in September, but the preliminary data from over 12,000 law enforcement agencies suggest it was probably one of the largest declines on record.