Republican Sen. Norm Coleman holds a seven-point lead over his DFL challenger Al Franken, who appears to have been weakened by his recent tax problems.
A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll also shows that Mike Ciresi, the DFL trial lawyer who dropped out of the race in March for lack of support from his party's delegates, runs just about as strong against Coleman as Franken does.
Coleman enjoys a commanding 15-point lead over lesser-known Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, who is facing Franken in next month's DFL endorsing convention.
The telephone survey conducted last week shows Coleman attracting the support of 51 percent of registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Franken. In a hypothetical contest between Coleman and Ciresi, Coleman wins 51 percent to 43 percent. Against Nelson-Pallmeyer, Coleman's edge is 53 percent to 38 percent.
In what has been considered one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation, Coleman still shows some potential vulnerabilities, with a 45 percent overall job approval rating among all Minnesota adults in the poll.
In general, an incumbent seeking reelection who has a job approval rating below 50 percent is considered to be in the danger zone. Some of that appears to be a spillover from the unpopularity of President Bush.
"He seems to just go along with whatever [President] Bush wants," said Green Valley poll respondent Emily Viergutz, a student at Southwest Minnesota State University. "He's just sort of there, going with the flow."
But the DFLers have their own problems. Franken, a former "Saturday Night Live" star known nationally for his satirical attacks against Republicans, goes into the summer with 39 percent of all poll respondents saying they have an unfavorable impression of him. That's higher than the 33 percent who view him favorably.