Precip. Possible Friday Morning - Mostly Quiet Weekend For The Metro

Over the week ending Tuesday morning (the cut-off for the weekly drought update), we saw above-average precipitation across southern and northwestern Minnesota (some of this in the form of rain, some in snow).

With that above-average precipitation, we saw some improvement in the drought monitor update released Thursday morning. While most of the state (93.79%) of the state is still at least abnormally dry, only 43.67% is at least in Moderate Drought, and 20.66% in Severe Drought. A sliver of southwestern Minnesota (0.25% of the state) still remains under Extreme Drought, but that is also down from 1.13% last week.

Most of the improvement in the drought situation occurred in southern and western Minnesota.

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Forecast precipitation loop between 1 AM and 1 PM Friday.

Heads up: we could see a little batch of moisture (about a 20% chance) move across central Minnesota and the Twin Cities as we head through Thursday Night into the Friday morning commute. Temperatures will be down around freezing, but there will be a dry layer in the atmosphere in place. This means we could see either some light rain, light snow, or even some light freezing drizzle. While amounts will be light, if this does fall as some sort of wintry precipitation we will have to contend with slick roadways for the Friday morning commute.

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So while we'll watch that chance for some light precipitation in the early morning hours, most of the day will be dry with decreasing cloud cover. Morning temperatures will start off around freezing with highs climbing into the upper 40s.

More clouds than sun is expected in northern Minnesota on Thursday, with a partly cloudy day expected in the southern half of the state. Highs range from around freezing in northwestern portions of the state to the 40s in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

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We'll have a breakdown of weather across the state for the first weekend of November (Firearm Deer Opener), but as we look toward the weekend for the metro:

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Saturday marks the Minnesota Firearm Deer Opener. According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office: "The normal high temperature for the first weekend in November ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s to low 30s (most hunters begin early, near the time of the daily low temperature). The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation for the first week of November is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota."

Saturday will be a mainly quiet day across the state for the deer opener. An isolated rain or snow shower will be possible along the Canadian border, while the rest of the state sees a mix of sun and clouds - with the most concentrated clouds expected across northern Minnesota. Highs range from the 30s up north to the low 50s in southwestern Minnesota.

As we head through Sunday, we will be watching mainly cloudy skies across the state. A system will be moving in that will bring the potential of rain showers to western and northern Minnesota starting in the late morning hours. Right now it appears temperatures during at least the daytime hours should be warm enough for mainly rain showers, but I can't rule out some snow sneaking in across northern areas Sunday Night. Sunday Night into Monday will be the better chance of rain across southern Minnesota. Highs range from the 30s up north to the 50s in southern Minnesota.

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Quiet Spell With A Little Sunday Rain
By Paul Douglas

"If I were a bird, I would fly about the Earth seeking the successive autumns" wrote British novelist and poet George Eliot. Hey George, what about the pile of unraked leaves in my yard, huh? Turn THAT into a pretty poem.

It was nice while it lasted. No complaints about October, and November is looking up. Longer-range weather models keep us milder than average into mid-November, and I'm 82.7% sure we haven't seen the last 50-degree high this year. In fact we may come close to 50F later today, again Sunday - a couple of degrees above average for a change.

A weak disturbance may spark a light shower this morning but skies should brighten up this afternoon and Saturday looks dry (for leaf-raking Paul). A period of rain is likely Sunday into Monday before we cool off a little next week. But nothing arctic is brewing, no plowable snows or icy encounters. Old Man Winter is catching his breath, getting ready for what comes next.

El Nino may save us from a forbidding winter, but I'm not feeling lucky ok?

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: AM shower, some PM sun. Wake up 33. High 48. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Not bad. Wake up 32. High 48. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Light rain, steadiest north of MSP. Wake up 40. High 53. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Rain slowly tapers, windy. Wake up 44. High 47. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, showers arrive later. Wake up 33. High 45. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers taper, still damp. Wake up 41. High 46. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Risk of a little sunshine? Wake up 38. High 42. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 3rd

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 4 minutes, and 36 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 44 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Sunlight? November 5th (9 hours, 59 minutes, 11 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before We "Fall Back": November 4th (7:55 AM)
*Earliest Sunset Before We "Fall Back": November 4th (5:57 PM)

Don't Forget - We "Fall Back" Sunday Morning At 2 AM!
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This Day in Weather History
November 3rd

1991: The Great Halloween blizzard ends with a total of 28.4 inches of snow at the Twin Cities.

1956: Parts of central Minnesota experience record high low temperatures in the upper forties to the mid-fifties. Minneapolis, Farmington, Chaska, and Gaylord all had high temperatures of 55 degrees Fahrenheit.

1915: One person is killed by lightning during a strong thunderstorm in Chatfield, MN.

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The main story on Friday will be continued rain and snow showers in the Northwestern United States. Some scattered rain will also be possible in the Northern/Central Plains, portions of Florida, and parts of the Great Lakes. Some snow could mix in across far northern New England.

The heaviest rain through the first half of the weekend will fall in the Northwest, where rainfall amounts of over 3" will be possible. The highest amounts will be along the coast and at higher elevations as temperatures remain mostly warm enough for liquid precipitation.

With that system moving into the Northwest, we will watch the chance for several inches of snow from the Cascades to the Northern Rockies. Again, though, a good chunk of the precipitation in the Cascades will likely fall as rain.

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New study warns climate is warming even faster than some think

More from Axios: "A new study warns the Earth's climate is on track to warm significantly more than shown by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) projections. Driving the news: The paper, published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal Oxford Open Climate Change, is a synthesis of new and previous discoveries across multiple fields. It is peppered with policy prescriptions, unusual for a scientific paper. The stark warning comes from ex-NASA scientist James Hansen, who is the lead author of the report. In 1988, he famously and accurately warned that human-caused warming would soon emerge from the background noise of natural variability."

Labor scores EV wins in automaker battle

More from E&E News: "The United Auto Workers has notched a lot of wins in the last few days in standoffs with the Detroit automakers over electric vehicles and their batteries — but with an asterisk. New tentative agreements — on Wednesday with Ford; on Saturday with Stellantis, maker of brands like Dodge, Ram and Jeep; and on Monday with General Motors — help assure that workers will play a large role in making EVs and at higher wages than they might have expected. But the deals come as many auto buyers are balking at EVs' high sticker prices. Automakers in turn are slowing their EV investments, which raises questions about what workers will ultimately win, and whether traditional automakers will continue to prosper as they compete with a dominant Tesla."

How to sell solar in coal country

More from Grist: "When Matt McFadden came of age in southwestern Virginia in the early 2000s, he wasn't planning on working for a clean energy outfit. He grew up playing in a high school garage band, part of his increasingly Republican county's small punk scene. But staring out at the photovoltaic panels gleaming atop his daughter's elementary school in July — an array his company, Secure Solar Futures, installed — he was beaming with pride. In the midst of the Inflation Reduction Act's rollout, McFadden and coal-rich Wise County have something many politically conservative areas from Texas to Ohio are struggling to create: real, and growing, support for solar. McFadden and his firm have not accomplished this alone. In 2016, a coalition of businesses, nonprofits, colleges, local governments, and citizens launched the Solar Workgroup of Southwest Virginia, which collaborates with Secure Solar Futures. It includes experts in every aspect of the green transition, from community organizers who tell neighbors about the benefits of solar to legal experts who propose legislation."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser