Projection signals mediocrity for Vikings; will special teams determine fate?

On Monday, ESPN released its initial Football Power Index rankings for this upcoming NFL season. These projections, a synthesis of many factors leading to one smooth number, are far from perfect. But they do give us a baseline for how to think about a team as the preseason ramps up and the regular-season sits a month away.

For the Vikings, the projection is right down the middle: 8.5 wins in a 17-game season is exactly half. Nothing like an even split to separate optimists from pessimists, those who view the season half-full vs. half-empty.

These projections get more useful with more data, so right now we should take everything in stride. For instance, the FPI projects the Vikings to have a top-10 offense and a bottom-10 defense. That is indicative of a model that is taking a lot of 2020 data into account but doesn't quite know yet what to make of what seem to be several defensive enhancements for the Vikings (and, frankly, the possibility of an offensive line disaster and regression on that side of the ball).

But the main takeaway is this, and it's something I talked about on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast within the context of a placekicking battle between two very inexperienced (in the NFL at least) kickers: Poor special teams cost the Vikings in a big way last season. Being among the worst in the league, in fact, might have cost Minnesota a playoff spot when considering the 8-8 Bears made it and the 7-9 Vikings were just a game behind.

If you don't see the podcast player, tap here to listen.

Dan Bailey kicked poorly last season, missing 13 kicks (seven field goals, six extra points). The coverage teams were poor on punts and kickoffs, giving away valuable field position, while Bailey and punter Britton Colquitt also played a role in that. A midseason switch at long snapper added to the chaos. The Vikings also had two punts blocked.

And so this year? There is a kicking battle between the inexperienced Greg Joseph and undrafted rookie Riley Patterson. That's an uncertainty. Colquitt is back and looking for a better season. There's a long snapping competition. Dede Westbrook, if he is healthy, should help the punt return game. But he's coming back from a torn ACL.

The Vikings fired special teams coordinator Marwan Maalouf and promoted assistant Ryan Ficken to the job. Ficken's bio suggests that in 2020 the "Vikings struggled with injuries, leading to a number of rookies contributing on special teams." That's fair, but what if injuries happen again or the schemes are the problem?

Offense and defense will get a lot of headlines. But for a team projected to be right in the middle, special teams could very well be the difference between seven wins or 10 wins — between playoffs or no playoffs, between jobs kept and jobs lost. And there is a lot of ground to make up in that area after last season's historically bad group.