Quiet Sunday - Watching Ice, Rain & Snow For Sunday Night Into Monday

Conditions are expected to be quiet as we head through the last Sunday of February here in the Twin Cities. Mainly sunny skies are expected, but clouds will start to increase late in the day ahead of a system Sunday Night into Monday. Morning temperatures start off in the upper single digits with highs climbing to the mid-30s.

Highs in the 20s and 30s are expected across the state on Sunday with most areas seeing mainly sunny skies. Clouds start to increase late in the day, however, across southern Minnesota.

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Forecast loop from 6 PM Sunday to 12 PM Monday

As we head into Sunday Night, we'll be watching a system pushing through the central United States that'll bring a mess of wintry precipitation to the region through the overnight hours into Monday. Precipitation could start off as some freezing rain here in the metro before quickly changing over to plain rain as warmer air moves in at the surface. However, we could continue to see some freezing rain north of I-94 and into Wisconsin as we head into the morning commute hours on Monday. A little changeover to snow will be possible in the metro as precipitation comes to an end Monday with cooler air working back in, but there will be better chances of accumulating snow up in northern Minnesota.

We could see a glazing of ice here in the metro Sunday Night before the precipitation changes over to rain, but higher icing amounts (0.1" to 0.15") will be possible north of the metro including areas like St. Cloud and Hinckley. Even greater amounts of icing (up to 0.25") will be possible in parts of Wisconsin. This has the potential to lead to slick roads across the region - especially for the Monday morning commute.

While precipitation ends as some light snow in the metro with under a half inch expected, heavier snow amounts can be expected across the Arrowhead with up to 5" possible the farther up the North Shore you go.

Heavy rain is expected to fall across southeastern Minnesota, with over an inch of liquid expected for areas like Rochester. About a half inch of liquid is expected in the metro - most of that falling as rain, but some of it will be locked up in the freezing rain chance early and snow chance late.

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Forecast loop at six-hour steps from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Thursday

Another precipitation chance will move in as we head into Tuesday Night through Wednesday across mainly central and southern Minnesota - and this one looks to fall as snow. Right now generally 1-3" of snow is expected to fall in about a 36-hour period - light, but still enough to muck up the roads and just more snow to add to your already massive snow piles.

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The good news is that warmer temperatures stick around through the middle of the week, with highs in the 30s - around to slightly above average. Below-average temperatures return for a day on Thursday with highs in the 20s.

But those highs in the 20s Thursday look to be just a one-day blip with 30s returning for Friday and next weekend.

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On Track For A Top 5 Winter Snowfall?
By Paul Douglas

My first Minnesota winter was '83-84, when MSP picked up 98.6". I remember having a fleeting "where am I living" moment, trying to see around towering drifts at intersections while getting up to speed on roof-raking 101.

With last week's storm the metro area is up to 71" of snow for the winter; 33" above average, to date. March is no longer the snowiest month of the year, but we still see close to 10". April 2018 brought 26" so there is that. I wouldn't be shocked to see snow totals between 85-90" by May 1. If we pick up 85" it would be a Top 5 winter. Something to shoot for. Bragging rights.

NOAA guidance shows 2-8" liquid water trapped in all that snow, and if it melts gradually we stand a good chance of easing drought conditions, statewide. That would be nice.

Play in the powder today with mid-30s. Rain arrives Monday, with glaze ice from Mille Lacs eastward to Hayward and Spooner.

No arctic slaps in sight, with 30s this week. Models hint at plowable snow in a week. Skeptical? Me too. We'll see.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, thawing out. Wake up 10. High 36. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

MONDAY: Metro rain. Icy Mille Lacs to Hayward. Wake up 33. High 35. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 25. High 36. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Couple inches of wet snow? Wake up 28. High 33. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Flurries taper, skies clear. Wake up 18. High 29. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: Clouds increase, breezy. Wake up 18. High 40. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY: Clouds, few rain showers. Wake up 32. High 42. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 26th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 59 minutes, and 55 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When do we see 11 Hours of Daylight?: February 27th (11 hours, 2 minutes, 59 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrise Before DST Begins: March 11th (6:33 AM)

*When is Sunset at/after 6:00 PM?: March 1st (6:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
February 26th

1996: A bolt of lightning from a snowstorm causes an explosion at a fireworks storage site in Milaca. One employee was injured and several homes in the area were damaged. An eight foot crater was all that remained where the storage site had been.

1971: Extremely low pressure moves across Minnesota. The Twin Cities had a barometer reading of 28.77 inches and Duluth beat that with 28.75. Freezing rain and snow hit northern Minnesota, dumping up to 18 inches of snow in some areas. Areas around Virginia, MN were without power for 5 days.

1896: A balmy high of 60 degrees is reported at Maple Plain. The warm weather hampered the annual ice cutting on Lake Independence to store for summer use.

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We continue to watch active weather across the lower 48 on Sunday. A system pushing out of the western United States will produce severe storms in the Southern Plains, with icing possible into the overnight hours in the Upper Midwest. A new system pushes into the western United States, bringing another round of rain and snow. A frontal boundary in New England will bring some snow chances.

A Moderate Risk of severe weather (threat level 4 of 5) is in place Sunday across parts of western Oklahoma, with an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3 of 5) stretching from the Texas Panhandle to far southwestern Missouri. The primary threat will be destructive winds with severe storms, followed by a tornado threat and some large hail.

Heavy snow continues to fall out west through the weekend and the first day of the work week, with several feet possible in some of the mountain ranges. Heavy rain will also be possible in the central United States, with up to 3" possible.

Meanwhile, icing will be possible across the Upper Midwest as we head into Sunday Night into Monday, with up to a quarter inch of ice possible from eastern Minnesota across central Wisconsin into Michigan.

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Rare black hole 1 billion times the mass of the sun could upend our understanding of galaxy formation

More from Live Science: "A rare supermassive black hole found hiding at the dawn of the universe could indicate that there were thousands more of the ravenous monsters stalking the early cosmos than scientists thought — and astronomers aren't sure why. The primordial black hole is around 1 billion times the mass of our sun and was found at the center of the galaxy COS-87259. The ancient galaxy formed just 750 million years after the Big Bang and was spotted by the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA), a radio observatory in Chile, in a tiny patch of sky less than 10 times the size of the full moon."

Who shoulders Mother Nature's cut of the Colorado River?

More from E&E News: "Alongside farmers, ranchers and sprawling urban cities, Mother Nature has long sipped her share of the Colorado River — draining away enough water through evaporation and seepage to support nearly 6 million families each year. But as decades of drought strain major reservoirs in the Mountain West, threatening future water supplies and hydropower, states are divided over who should be picking up nature's tab for the huge amount of water lost on the 1,500-mile-long waterway. The Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — already account forsome 468,000 acre-feet of water that evaporates from its reservoirs each year. But the Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — face no penalty for the more 1.5 million acre-feet that essentially disappears between Lees Ferry in Arizona and the U.S.-Mexico border, lost annually to an arid climate and leaks in canals that channel water to farms and communities."

Climate change, urbanization drive major declines in L.A.'s birds

More from Berkeley News: "Climate change isn't the only threat facing California's birds. Over the course of the 20th century, urban sprawl and agricultural development have dramatically changed the landscape of the state, forcing many native species to adapt to new and unfamiliar habitats. In a new study, biologists at the University of California, Berkeley, use current and historical bird surveys to reveal how land use change has amplified — and in some cases mitigated — the impacts of climate change on bird populations in Los Angeles and the Central Valley. The study found that urbanization and much hotter and drier conditions in L.A. have driven declines in more than one-third of bird species in the region over the past century. Meanwhile, agricultural development and a warmer and slightly wetter climate in the Central Valley have had more mixed impacts on biodiversity."

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- D.J. Kayser