Rain And Snow For A Chilly Easter Sunday

Ice out was declared Friday on Lake Minnetonka at 5:30 PM by the Hennepin County Sheriff's Office and the Freshwater Society.

There have been numerous ice outs over the past week or so in the metro area, including Lake Nokomis last Monday. You can see more ice out dates across the region from the Minnesota DNR by clicking here.

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Forecast loop: 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday.

As we head into Easter Sunday, it won't be the nicest Easter on record for the Twin Cities. We will be watching a system passing over the upper Midwest as we head through Sunday (and even into Monday), bringing rain and snow showers along with it. In the Twin Cities, it'll start off as light snow or a rain/snow mix before turning to all rain in the afternoon hours, back to snow showers as we head into Sunday Night, and either snow showers or a rain/snow mix into Monday. As you head into northern Minnesota, precipitation will primarily stay as snow throughout the duration of the event.

Overall, up to a quarter-inch of liquid (rain or melted wintry precipitation) is expected across much of the state Sunday into Monday, with heavier amounts along the North Shore. While we could see some slushy snow accumulation here in the Twin Cities (a half an inch or so), up to about an inch is possible across central Minnesota with 1-3" as you head northward. The heaviest amounts are likely to be in far northwestern Minnesota and along the North Shore.

As we look at some Easter stats from the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the most snow MSP has seen on an Easter Sunday was 6.6" back in 2020. The coldest low was -2F with the warmest high being 88F. Deal is, since Easter is a moving holiday (it can occur anywhere between March 22 and April 25 every year) the weather can easily vary from one Easter to the next.

So again we will watch the chance of a wintry mix or snow showers becoming rain as we head through Easter Sunday in the Twin Cities. Morning lows will be in the teens and 20s with highs climbing into the low/mid-40s.

Looking statewide, highs will be 10-20F degrees below average with the rain and snow chances. Definitely not a great day for an outdoor egg hunt!

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Forecast loop: 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Thursday.

As we head toward the middle of the week, we will watch another chance of precipitation moving into the Upper Midwest. While a few rain or snow showers could be possible on Tuesday, the bulk of the precipitation will move on Wednesday. Across southern and most of central Minnesota it should be mainly rain, with more of a snow or mixed precipitation chance as you head farther north. To note, more rain is possible as we head toward Friday (with maybe even some thunderstorms).

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While we stay about 10-15F degrees below average through Tuesday, we finally start to see a warm-up as we head into the second half of the week! Highs will climb into the 50s as we head into Wednesday and Thursday which is actually still below average! As we head into Friday, it looks like we could hit the 60s.

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The Cold, Slushy, Windy "Spring" of 2022
By Paul Douglas

Happy Easter! Or is it Groundhog Day? The tormented spring of '22 limps on with chilly temperatures, slushy encounters and way too much wind.

Thanks largely to a cool La Nina signal in the Pacific Ocean, cold air is lingering over southern Canada longer than usual. Which means the core of the jet stream, the high-speed superhighway for storms, is 300-400 miles south of where it usually is by mid-April. Each successive storm brings some of that high-velocity air down to ground-level, creating wild wind gusts, but also helping to break up ice on area lakes.

6.6" of snow fell on Easter, 2020. KARE-11 meteorologist Belinda Jensen reports snow on 7 of the last 30 Easters at MSP. A coating of slush is possible later today, but a slow warming trend this week means rain on Wednesday, and a colorful assortment of showers and T-storms by late week as temperatures push into the 60s, maybe 70 degrees next weekend. Please.

Forget the Easter egg hunt. I'm searching for gloves and a positive attitude. This too shall pass...

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: PM snow. Nighttime coating. Wake up 27. High 40. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

MONDAY: Flurries taper with high winds. Wake up 30. High 38. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 20-45 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Wake up 28. High 45. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers likely. Wake up 40. High 47. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine, pleasant. Wake up 37. High 59. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: Showers, possible T-storms. Wake up 45. High 60. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind E 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Humid with showers, few T-storms. Wake up 48. High 67. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 11th

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 18 minutes, and 14 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 3 seconds

*When Do We See 14 Hours Of Daylight: April 26th (14 hours, 2 minutes, 30 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:30 AM?: April 14th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8 PM?: April 17th (8:01 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
April 11th

1929: An intense downpour occurs in Lynd, Minnesota (near Marshall), where 5.27 inches of rain would fall in 24 hours.

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For your Easter Sunday, we are tracking storms across the southern United States, rain and snow in the Northeast, and some rain/snow chances in the western United States.

Over three inches of rain could fall through Monday across portions of the Deep South. We are still tracking snow chances across the northern tier of states as we head through mid-April, with the heaviest falling in the northwestern mountains and into northern North Dakota.

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Nebraskans encouraged to start conserving water due to dry conditions

More from KETV: "With warmer temperatures and below-average precipitation in the area, a pair of Nebraska groups have encouraged the state to start conserving water. The Lower Platte River Consortium said projections show conditions are expected to continue through at least June, which will impact the Platte River. The Lincoln Transportation and Utilities said 50% of the city's daily water supply is used for irrigation on a hot summer day — though much of it is wasted by "overwatering, evaporation, irrigation system leaks, and poorly maintained systems."

Factors including extreme winds, topography and vegetation influenced the severity of burns from Oregon's devastating 2020 megafires

More from Portland State University: "In early September 2020, severe winds, high heat, and prolonged drought conditions led to the explosive growth of wildfires along the western slopes of the Cascades Mountains in the Pacific Northwest. The fires engulfed enormous tracts of forestland, destroyed communities, took dozen of lives, and cost hundreds of millions to fight. In a first-of-its-kind study examining burn patterns from the 2020 Labor Day fires, researchers at Portland State University studied the influence of weather, topography, vegetation and other factors on burn severity in areas where the fires killed more than 75% of the trees. Their research confirms that extreme winds over the Labor Day holiday were the primary driver of the destructive force of the fires yet demonstrates how forest vegetation structure (e.g., canopy height, the age of trees, etc.) and topography played a significant role in burn severity patterns."

To Resurrect Jordan's Lost Forests, People Plant Tiny Urban Ones

More from WIRED: "At a park in the east Amman neighborhood of Marka, a local street cat stalks two small birds past shrubs and saplings. Deema Assaf, an architect turned environmentalist, stops talking for a moment to watch the interaction. Only a few feet from the oblivious birds, the cat freezes. Then it loses interest and walks away, curling up near Assaf in a rare patch of weeds—most of the unwanted vegetation was pulled the day before by volunteers. The birds are much thicker in the morning, Assaf says. And cats are not the only things they are attracting. The park's security guard has seen a fennec fox on the hunt; it likely came from green spaces around a small airport nearby, the only part of the surrounding neighborhood not dominated by cement and concrete buildings. But that's changing. The small plot of knee-high vegetation where she stands now does not look like a forest, says Assaf, but give it a couple of years and most of it will be 5 to 6 feet in height."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser