Rain Changes To 2-5" Of Snow Thursday Into Thursday Night

The system we've been tracking for the second half of the week is on our doorstep as we head into Thursday. Breaking down some timing of precipitation:

A band of at least 3-7" of snow will fall from southwestern Minnesota to central Minnesota, with snowfall tallies up to a foot possible in portions of the Arrowhead and North Shore. This will be another round of heavy, wet snow across the region with snowfall rates of around 1" per hour possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

Where the heaviest amount of snow is expected - up in northeastern Minnesota - Winter Storm Warnings are in place. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect closer to home due to the lesser expected amounts of 2" to (isolated) 6" amounts. This includes the metro, which is under the advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

Here in the metro, precipitation will start off as some rain before making the transition to a mix of precipitation (including possibly some freezing rain) and eventually all snow in the midday to early afternoon hours. Temperatures will slowly be on the decline - starting off in the mid-30s in the morning and falling to the low 30s in the afternoon, enabling that changeover to snow.

Here's another look at the precipitation throughout the day, showing that changeover from some moderate rain in the morning to eventually moderate to heavy snow toward the afternoon. The evening commute Thursday will certainly be impacted!

With precipitation chances across the state Thursday, we'll see temperatures range from the teens up in the Red River Valley to the 30s across eastern and southern Minnesota.

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Some of the snow from this system could linger across the region both Friday and Saturday - but the precipitation chances will take a step down each day vs. the day previously. Breezy conditions also will exist on both Friday and Saturday. Sunnier skies return on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 20s behind our Thursday snow through the weekend.

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The good news is that we see a stretch of 40s return as we head into next week and the last weekend of the month. There's the potential some nights late next week will see lows that don't drop below freezing - allowing slow snowmelt to continue through the overnight hours.

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A Few More Slushy Inches Likely Tonight
By Paul Douglas

March snowfalls are substantially different than January storms. Temperatures are warmer and snow has higher water content; it's less prone to blowing and drifting. A higher sun angle keeps asphalt roads wet, even when surface temperatures are below 32F. Asphalt has an albedo of about 0.05, meaning it absorbs 95% of incoming light. Snow accumulates at night, but often there is very little slush sticking on highway surfaces during the daylight hours.

That applies today, as rain changes over to wet snow. I'm not very impressed with amounts – maybe 2-4" tonight, with some 5" amounts over the far northern suburbs. 85"+ and a Top 5 Winter Snowfall for MSP will probably have to wait until the next storm.

With low 20s and a wind chill close to 0F, Friday will be the coldest St. Patty's Day in 30 years. The sun breaks through the clouds by Sunday, with a warming trend next week. A streak of 40s will start to melt the tenacious glacier in your yard next week. Spring green-up in 30+ days constitutes a minor miracle!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Rain to snow. 2-4" tonight. High 36 early – dropping to the low 30s by 5 PM. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind N 15-35 mph.

FRIDAY: Peeks of cold sunshine. Feels like 5F. Wake up 15. High 22. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY: Windy with a few flurries, still harsh. Wake up 13. High 26. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny, more tolerable. Wake up 12. High 31. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Plenty of sunshine, more mellow. Wake up 13. High 36. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Hints of spring. Wake up 20. High 42. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Windy with rain mixing with snow. Wake up 32. High 46. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind E 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
March 16th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 56 minutes, and 12 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 9 seconds

*When do we see 12 Hours of Daylight?: March 18th (12 hours, 2 minutes, 31 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7 AM? March 29th (6:59 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8 PM? April 17th (8:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
March 16th

1930: The temperature at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport tops out at a record 71 degrees.

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A couple of systems working into the central United States on Thursday will bring snowy weather from the Rockies to the Great Lakes and storms - some severe - across the Southern Plains and Mid-South. Drier weather is expected out west.

Heavy snow of a foot or more will be possible across portions of the Rockies and up around the Great Lakes through the end of the week. Meanwhile, rainfall amounts of 3"+ will be possible in the southern United States.

From northern Nebraska to central Minnesota, a band of at least 3-7" of snow is expected to fall through Friday as a system moves through. The heaviest snow will fall across portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead/North Shore of Lake Superior to northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan, where some of this snow will be lake-enhanced. With the combo of strong winds and falling snow, visibility will be greatly reduced across the region, causing hazardous travel conditions.

We'll be tracking an area of low pressure across the southern United States, along with a cold front and dryline, which will help to spark a severe threat across the Southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. An Enhanced Risk of severe weather (threat level 3 of 5) exists across portions of north-central/northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and southwestern Arkansas - including the Dallas metroplex, Tyler (TX), Texarkana (TX/AR), and Ardmore (OK). Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

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Cat 5 hurricane-proof wind turbines are coming to the Gulf of Mexico

More from Electrek: "Wind turbine rotor firm Gulf Wind Technology and Shell New Energies US will together develop hurricane-proof wind turbines unique to the Gulf of Mexico. Shell has committed $10 million to create the Shell Gulf Wind Technology Accelerator program with Louisiana-based Gulf Wind Technology, which specializes in developing hurricane-proof wind turbine technology. The accelerator program aims to develop, test, and deploy a Gulf of Mexico-specific demonstrator turbine as early as 2024. In addition to its R&D work on the hurricane-resistant turbine, the Shell Gulf Wind Technology Accelerator will also launch an education and training facility to develop a workforce for the region's new offshore wind industry."

EPA proposes first-ever limits on PFAS in drinking water

More from Grist: "The Environmental Protection Agency released long-awaited proposed standards for cancer-causing "forever chemicals" in drinking water on Tuesday. Once finalized, the standards will force states to begin the arduous and expensive process of cleaning their water supplies of some of the class of chemicals called per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. This marks the first time the EPA has proposed enforceable drinking water limits for PFAS, which are commonly known as "forever chemicals" because they do not break down over time and can remain in the environment for years on end. The proposed limits would cap two common types of PFAS contamination — the chemicals PFOA and PFOS — in drinking water at just 4 parts per trillion. That's a significant reduction from the level the EPA suggested was safe as recently as 2016, when the agency put out a health advisory that suggested 70 parts per trillion as a maximum level for those types of PFAS in drinking water. This week's announcement signals that federal regulators' understanding of the health impacts of exposure to these chemicals is rapidly evolving and that the EPA now appears to believe that virtually no quantity of the chemicals is safe for human consumption."

Solar companies offer reassurance after renewables financier Silicon Valley Bank collapses

More from Utility Drive: "The shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank by California regulators over the weekend has led to logistical questions about the fate of the renewables startups and projects it financed – particularly residential and community solar. The federal government acted to fully protect the bank's depositors and provide access to their funds by Monday, but SVB's collapse means that companies that used the bank to finance projects will have to secure funding elsewhere. Several solar companies said that they either had little exposure to SVB or were satisfied by the government's promises to make them whole, but CEO Kiran Bhatraju of Arcadia – the largest domestic manager of community solar – said the bank's collapse will "have an impact on the broader industry.""

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- D.J. Kayser