Rain - Heavy At Times - Continues Into Monday

Forecast loop from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM Monday.

Steadier and heavier rain will continue to move in across the region as we head through Sunday evening into the overnight hours. The heaviest is expected Sunday Night across the region, where a band of rain is expected to set up somewhere across central or southern Minnesota where 2-3" could fall. Rain will persist across southern Minnesota into Monday, slowly fading away as the day goes on.

At least 0.5-1.5" of rain is expected to fall across central and southern Minnesota as this system moves through Sunday Night into Monday, with some areas potentially seeing 3" depending on where the heavy rainband sets up.

A few of the storms into Sunday Night could be strong to severe near and south of the Minnesota River, where a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5) is in place. Hail and wind are the primary threats, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

As we look at the metro, those rain chances stick around through about the midday hours, with drier conditions moving in behind it as well as some sunnier skies by the dinner hour. Morning temperatures start off around 60F (where they will mostly stick until the rain moves out) with a high in the low 70s.

As shown in the forecast loop above, the best chance of rain will be from about St. Cloud southward, with those rain chances slowly sinking south during the day. In northern Minnesota, mainly sunny skies can be expected, and those conditions will start to move into areas where rain clears out throughout the day. The warmest temperatures - approaching 80F in some locations - will be in northwestern Minnesota where sunshine is prevalent throughout much of the day. In southern areas where we see more rain and cloud cover, highs may remain stuck in the 60s. 60s are also expected along the North Shore.

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After our cool start to the week with clouds and rainy weather, warmer and sunnier skies return for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs climbing back into the 80s. A slight dip downward toward 80F is expected Thursday behind a cold front that'll bring in some storms (potentially strong) Wednesday Night. After that, mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week into the weekend with dry conditions and hot weather returning as highs will be around 90F.

As mentioned, a few storms could be strong to severe Wednesday into Wednesday Night as the cold front approaches and moves through. There are some question marks as to the timing of these storms (which could impact the severity of the storms), but it does appear hail and wind are the main threats with the equivalent of a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) already in place.

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Predicting the Future is Hard: Ask Economists
By Paul Douglas

"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it" said Patrick Young.

Not to sound too defensive but where is the recession nearly every PhD economist has been predicting for the better part of 2 years? 1% inflation in the Twin Cities? Economists make meteorologists look good, which is pretty hard to do.

Our weather tends to dry out in August, but 2023 may be the exception to that rule. Significant rains fell overnight from a slow-moving storm, and we will navigate puddles much of today with temperatures holding in the 60s. Any cooling relief gives way to a warming trend this week with plenty of 80s into Saturday. The only exception comes from a wind-whipped Alberta Clipper Thursday with temperatures stuck in the 70s.

Record 100-degree heat is likely across the Pacific Northwest this week. Most people in Seattle don't have air conditioning. Why? They haven't needed it until fairly recently. America continues to bake.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Rain slowly tapers. Wake up 61. High 69. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 57. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, windy and warm. Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, gusty and cooler. Wake up 63. High 78. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny with a stiff breeze. Wake up 60. High 87. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY: More clouds, passing shower? Wake up 64. High 82. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Unsettled, stray T-storm. Wake up 59. High 80. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 14th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 7 minutes, and 39 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 44 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Sunlight? August 17th (13 hours, 59 minutes, 17 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6:30 AM? August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:00 PM? August 27th (7:59 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
August 14th

1978: The Boundary Waters area is hit by a strong tornado. Some of the damage could still be seen 10 years later.

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On Monday, a couple of areas of low pressure across the central United States working east will produce showers and storms from the Mississippi River eastward. Some monsoonal storms are possible in the Southwestern U.S. as well. Heat concerns are in place across the southern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest.

The central U.S. will be the focus of heavy rain from Sunday through Tuesday in two different areas - across the Ozarks, and from southern Minnesota to Michigan. In these areas, rain of at least 2-3" will be possible.

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Hawaii underestimated the deadly threat of wildfire, records show

More from CNN: "When Hawaii officials released a report last year ranking the natural disasters most likely to threaten state residents, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic hazards featured prominently. Near the bottom of a color-coded chart, the state emergency management agency described the risk of wildfires to human life with a single word: "low." A year and a half later, the catastrophic fires that engulfed Maui and the historic town of Lahaina this week have already become the state's deadliest natural disaster in more than six decades, with a fatality count of at least 93. Hawaii officials underestimated the deadly threat of wildfires even as they acknowledged a lack of necessary resources to mitigate them, according to a CNN review of state and local emergency planning documents that show how ill-prepared the state was for the disaster."

Our wildfire problem is growing beyond our ability to tame it

More from the Washington Post: "Global warming means the scale of the wildfire problem is quickly growing far beyond our capacity to respond. For example, under the terms of the bipartisan infrastructure law, nearly $81 million will go to reducing hazardous fuels and boosting restoration efforts in forests and rangelands. That's a worthy undertaking — and it sounds like a lot — but it will treat only 2 million acres of wildland this year, a fraction of what remains untreated. An even bigger challenge will be in treating the most dangerous urban fuels — our homes. We need to promote fire-resistant materials in our building codes, improve warning systems and work harder to reduce human-started fires. Evacuation routes are an increasingly hard-to-solve problem in the West, where housing growth into remote, flammable places leaves communities at risk. We need to think about ways to shift incentive structures around private development away from fire-prone areas and toward those with multiple exits."

How To Upgrade & Electrify Millions Of US Homes & Buildings

More from CleanTechnica: "The White House and Department of Energy (DOE) recently laid the foundation for two monumental home energy upgrade initiatives: the Home Efficiency Rebates program, which offers up to $8,000 to households, and the Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates program, which provides up to $14,000. These rebate programs — made possible by President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act — represent one of the largest-ever federal investments to decarbonize the US building stock and help Americans pay for home efficiency improvements such as better insulation, all-electric heat pumps, and induction stoves. Altogether, the two new home energy rebate programs are anticipated to deliver $1 billion in annual energy cost savings for consumers, support 50,000 clean energy jobs, and produce significant climate and air pollution reduction benefits for homes and communities across the country. A recent RMI analysis showed that in all 48 continental states, replacing a gas furnace with a heat pump alone could reduce climate pollution by up to 93 percent, depending on the state. Combine these benefits with the latest demonstrations that energy efficiency can help save lives during extreme weather events and that heat pump installations will reduce climate pollution beginning in the first year, and states can see the win-win of efficiency and electrification."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser