Rain Moves In Friday - Watching Snow Potential Friday Night into Early Saturday

The latest Drought Monitor was released on Thursday, and the main change vs. last week is an increase in the amount of the state in at least abnormally dry conditions. This category now covers almost the entire state (98.34%).

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Forecast loop from Midnight Thursday Night through 6 PM Saturday.

As we head into the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend, we will be watching an area of low pressure moving through the region. This will have already sparked some rain and snow showers across northern Minnesota Friday morning. For the metro, a shower or two can't be ruled out in the very early morning hours but our rain chances start to increase into the afternoon and overnight. As we head into the overnight, the area where snow will be possible sinks south into central Minnesota, possibly reaching the north/west metro Saturday morning before precipitation fades away during the midday hours Saturday.

Precipitation values have gone up - which is good news. Through Saturday in the metro, the potential exists for up to about half an inch. Overall precipitation totals (rain/melted snow) could top three-quarters of an inch along the North Shore. I'm not ready to throw out snow totals just yet, but the best chance of accumulation will be north and west of the metro - with possibly the heaviest snow totals across central Minnesota from Alexandria to Duluth.

So while Friday will start dry in the metro, we'll watch those rain chances increase as we head into the afternoon hours. Morning temperatures start in the upper 30s before climbing to highs in the low/mid-40s.

We'll watch those precipitation chances across the state on Friday, with a mix of rain/snow or all snow from Brainerd northward and mainly rain south of that throughout the day. Highs will once again be quite above average for mid-December - 30s up north and 40s in southern Minnesota.

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Saturday: As shown above, precipitation will continue into at least the morning hours on Saturday in the metro, with the potential of a mix or it changing over to all snow on the backside as it slides on through. Cloudy skies remain once precipitation ends with highs around 40F.

Sunday: Skies will remain fairly cloudy throughout the day, as the clearing line doesn't look like it'll reach the metro until after sunset. Highs will be in the upper 30s.

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Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s for highs through at least Christmas - if not through the New Year - here in the metro. The only exception I see to that at this very moment is a batch of colder air moving in for next Monday that a) may bring some scattered snow flurries or snow showers and b) highs that only reach the upper 20s. Other than that, a quiet weather pattern continues through much of next week as systems stay to our south.

Note: You may be hearing talk of a system as we get closer to Christmas out there in the social media land. Please note that it is far, far too early for any real certainty in anything that could happen a week and a half out (models can struggle just a few days out at times!), so I'm taking everything with a grain of salt at the moment. Once we get closer, we'll have a much better idea if there will be a system that could impact your holiday plans.

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El Nino One Of 5 Strongest Since 1950
By Paul Douglas

I half expect to see Old Man Winter's scruffy mug showing up on milk cartons. MISSING. Half a winter? That may be naively optimistic, but after 90.3" snow last winter I'll be amazed if the metro area picks up 30-40" by April.

One of the 5 strongest El Ninos since 1950, coupled with a rapidly warming climate (and ocean water temperatures) has produced a non-stop firehose of mild, Pacific air flooding North America. 50s in mid-December? 15-30F above average? Hard to believe the Winter Solstice is next Thursday.

This next storm looks more impressive with mostly rain for the metro, ending as a little slush early Saturday. BREAKING NEWS: A band of 3-5" is possible from Alexandria to Brainerd and Duluth. Central Minnesota may pick up a few inches, some of which may stick around into Christmas. But MSP? Not so much.

We cool down to average early next week but yet another puff of Pacific air lures the mercury into the low 40s the weekend before Christmas.

Santa may show up in a red SUV this year. Reindeer optional.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Rain arrives. Wake up 37. High 42. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Mixed precip. A little metro slush. Wake up 36. High 39. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler wind. Wake up 33. High 38. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Oddly feels like December. Sunny. Wake up 18. High 28. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Blue sky, stiff breeze. Wake up 19. High 39. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake up 26. High 40. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Clouds linger, good travel weather. Wake up 27. High 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 15th

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 47 minutes, and 48 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 0 minutes and 33 seconds

*Day With The Least Amount Of Sunlight: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/After 5 PM? January 18th (5:01 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
December 15th

1971: A snowstorm hits Duluth with 10 inches.

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On Friday, we'll be watching wet and snowy weather across the mid-section of the nation due to two areas of low pressure. Some ice could even mix in near the International Border. Meanwhile, we'll be watching an area of low pressure forming in the Gulf of Mexico that could start to bring storms to Florida (with a better chance of rain into the weekend).

We'll be tracking two areas of heavier precipitation through Saturday - one in the Plains and another across Florida. Across Florida, I would not be surprised to see 3"+ tallies through the weekend.

Most of the snow across the Rockies scooting out into the Plains will have fallen as we went through Thursday. Only lighter scattered amounts in the northern part of the nation are then expected through Saturday.

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How giving trucks an electric boost can help cut mining pollution in Minnesota

More from Energy News Network: "A Minnesota taconite mining company and its electric utility are seeking federal funding for a demonstration project aimed at slashing diesel fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions. After an unsuccessful attempt to secure money this spring from the state Legislature, U.S. Steel and Minnesota Power have applied for a U.S. Department of Energy grant in hopes of kickstarting the project, which seeks to test a system to partially power mining trucks with electricity. Once loaded, the enormous vehicles would connect to overhead power lines for the steepest part of their climb from the open pit mine. Running on electricity for that portion could reduce diesel fuel use by 70% per trip, according to the companies' presentation to legislators earlier this year."

A U.S. energy milestone is just around the corner

More from Axios: "An inflection point in U.S. energy looks imminent. Driving the news: Combined power generated by wind and solar is slated to eclipse coal-fired electricity next year, as the sources move in opposite directions. Why it matters: The milestone, forecast by the Energy Department's independent statistics arm, helps tell the ongoing story of massive changes to the U.S. power mix."

The severe El Niño in South America is a preview of a climate-changed world

More from Vox: "While El Niño is a phenomenon independent of climate change, its increasing ferocity has created a preview of life on the planet as temperatures continue to rise. "The impacts of El Niño look a lot like what the impacts of climate change are going to be," said Christopher Callahan, an earth science researcher at Stanford University. Some of El Niño's most acute consequences are in the places closest to where it was first documented. The Andean region, a towering mountain ridge running down South America's Pacific coast, forms a microcosm of the planet as a whole, from its beaches to its peaks, its deserts to its rainforests. During El Niño years, countries like Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia — together home to more than 110 million people — suffer from strengthened heat waves, drought, and heavy rains. And this year is already leaving scars."

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- D.J. Kayser