Rand: Being good on paper no guarantee of being good

Local sports fans hardly need to be reminded that teams looking good on paper can fall apart. History is full of painful examples; the most recent instances are the 2010 Vikings and 2011 Twins.

On paper, both of those teams had many of the same pieces that helped them be successful the previous season, and both organizations were optimistic that the status quo would hold up. Neither did, of course, and now both are rebuilding instead of contending.

In case you were in need of some less painful and more recent potential cases, here are a few that don't involve Minnesota teams:

• On paper, the Detroit Lions have the potential to be a playoff contender in the NFC for the next several years. They have a very good young quarterback (Matthew Stafford), another dominant skill position player (Calvin Johnson) and a ton of intriguing, young and talented defensive players.

But an organization that looked to have turned the corner in 2011 looks just as capable of slamming into the wall in 2012 and beyond. Detroit players have run afoul of the law or team rules numerous times already in the offseason, with defensive tackle Nick Fairley's drunken driving arrest early Sunday being the latest and perhaps most notable example. On paper, the Lions look like a playoff team. But it wouldn't be stunning if they stumbled right back into oblivion.

• On paper, the Phillies -- starting in 2011 -- looked to have one of the most formidable starting rotations in the history of baseball. Combined with a stacked lineup, it looked like the Phillies could take home multiple World Series titles.

Last year, almost everything went as planned in the regular season, when the Phillies won 102 games. Since then, things have fallen apart. They lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS last season; this year, Cliff Lee hasn't won a game yet, Roy Halladay is now having shoulder issues, several other key players are hurt and the team his hovering around .500 in last place in the AL East.

• On paper -- and even on the record, when LeBron James fatefully promised multiple championships before his new team had even played a game -- the Heat looked like the next NBA dynasty. With two of the best players in the NBA (LeBron and Dwyane Wade) and a third very good one (Chris Bosh) joining forces in South Beach, they were poised to deliver on LeBron's promise.

It could very well still happen. But they failed in their first go-round, losing to the veteran Mavericks in the finals while questions about James' play in the fourth quarter mounted. They could face a very similar veteran squad on a roll -- the Spurs -- in this year's finals. That is, if they can first get past the veteran Celtics.

If not, they'll always be paper champions at least.

MICHAEL RAND