Rand: Numbers tell the difference hot goalie Dubnyk makes for Wild

March 26, 2015 at 2:21AM
Minnesota Wild goalie Devon Dubnyk. ] CARLOS GONZALEZ cgonzalez@startribune.com, February 22, 2015, St. Paul, Minn., Xcel Energy Center, NHL, Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars
When Devan Dubnyk arrived in goal, the Wild’s playoff chances started going up, and they’re still on the rise. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Wild's rise from also-ran to contenders this season — with goalie Devan Dubnyk serving as the catalyst — seems to get more impressive by the day. So before we get too deep into the season — and likely the postseason — let's take a moment to go inside the numbers to reflect on just how impressive this run has been.

• 9.3: The percentage chance the website Hockey Reference gave the Wild to make the playoffs at the All-Star Break, shortly after the acquisition of Dubnyk. Two months ago, the Wild had a 20-20-6 record and less than a 1-in-10 shot of making the playoffs based on the standings and simulation of future games.

• 95.3: Percentage chance Hockey Reference now gives the Wild to make the playoffs. They're an incredible 22-5-1 since the break.

• 33: Consecutive starts for Dubnyk, including all 32 games he's been with the Wild. That's the most consecutive starts by a goalie during an NHL season in four years.

• .929: Dubnyk's save percentage in even-strength situations this season with Arizona before being traded to the Wild, per war-on-ice.com. That was good for 10th in the NHL among goalies with at least 750 minutes played at the time of the trade, and it was reason for optimism that he could be an upgrade for the Wild.

• .943: Dubnyk's save percentage in even-strength situations since the trade, third-best among goalies from Jan. 15 through Tuesday's games.

• 32.5: Shots per 60 minutes that Dubnyk faced in Arizona before the trade, the eighth most among NHL goalies in that span.

• 27.9: Shots per game Dubnyk has faced in Minnesota since the trade, the seventh fewest among NHL goalies during that span.

• 1.71, .938: Goals-against average and save percentage for Dubnyk with the Wild this season.

• 1.65, .933: Goals-against average and save percentage for Josh Harding with the Wild last year.

• 10-0: Wild's record in its past 10 road games, all started by Dubnyk.

• 12-14-2: Wild's record on the road this season before this recent streak.

• 7th: Where the Wild ranked among NHL teams in even-strength Corsi percentage, a metric used to evaluate puck possession and scoring chances in 5-on-5 situations, before the trade for Dubnyk.

• 19th: Where the Wild has ranked in even-strength Corsi percentage since the Dubnyk trade. Essentially, Minnesota has had less puck possession but is still winning more. That's a testament to a great penalty kill — and to the run Dubnyk has been on.

Michael Rand

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