RandBall: Even a debunked Matthew Stafford to Vikings trade rumor can create intrigue

It doesn’t take much beyond an amplified voice essentially saying, “hey, this might make some sense” for a rumor to get started in modern sports.

That appears to be the case with the notion that the Vikings would be interested in trading for Rams QB Matthew Stafford. The idea was floated in a couple places, most notably by Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio.

He wrote Tuesday: “There’s chatter that we haven’t confirmed regarding the Vikings and Rams possibly talking. I’ve been openly advocating for the move, since Stafford would make the Vikings a legitimate Super Bowl contender.”

That was enough for social media and content aggregators to let their imaginations run wild, at least until the Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling did some follow-up reporting and was told by a source that there was “zero truth” to the Stafford/Minnesota rumor.

But the topic was intriguing enough for me to engage Goessling further on the topic during Thursday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

The upshot: The Vikings could probably make the money work. But they’ve already committed to a likely succession plan with J.J. McCarthy in 2025. And they have precious little draft capital next year (a first-round pick and two fifth-rounders). A big trade before the Nov. 5 deadline might have to involve that first-round pick.

The only reason this is even a conversation topic is because the Vikings surprisingly have started 5-1. And there’s this: How much of an upgrade is a 36-year-old Stafford over Sam Darnold, the QB who has helped them to that hot start even if his own play has cooled off recently?

If we look at ESPN’s Total QBR metric, the answer is “none.” Darnold is No. 18 and Stafford is No. 19, though Stafford has been playing much of the season without standout receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Both of those receivers could return for the Rams’ game Thursday night against ... the Vikings. And that’s where all the silliness gets even more complicated.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that there is actually a less-than-zero chance the Vikings would consider a Stafford trade.

If the Vikings win Thursday, it would increase the likelihood that the Rams (who would then be 2-5) would trade him. But it would also quite possibly mean Darnold played well and re-instilled the Vikings’ confidence in him (if the offense breaks out) and/or show them that Stafford isn’t the answer (if Minnesota wins a low-scoring affair during which he plays poorly).

If the Vikings lose Thursday, it might decrease the likelihood the Rams (who would then be 3-4) would trade Stafford while either: 1) Making the Vikings more interested in a trade or 2) Making the Vikings realize they aren’t just a different QB away from being a true Super Bowl contender (even if Stafford did win a Super Bowl with the Rams three years ago when Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell was his offensive coordinator).

The plot is great. The subplots are even better. I think we all know we’ll be watching Thursday night.