RandBall: Everyone was wrong about the Lynx except the people who mattered most

The Lynx have won almost twice as many games as preseason odds suggested they would, and they have finished several spots ahead of predictions. Perhaps the only ones who imagined this season was possible were the Lynx themselves.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
September 18, 2024 at 5:07PM
A Lynx fan cheers during a game at Target Center earlier this month. (Ayrton Breckenridge/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A season of unexpected success, which is always the best kind, is not over yet for the Lynx. But if any one game embodied what has happened so far for the 30-9 Lynx, it was Tuesday’s triumph at Connecticut.

In a tense game with playoff seeding on the line, the lead changed hands four times in the final seconds. It changed for good when Bridget Carleton stepped into a three-pointer from deep, so far back that there was some discussion about its actual distance after it went in to give the Lynx the 78-76 victory.

That one of the league’s most improved players showed no hesitation in taking such a shot, and that it went in cleanly for the league’s best three-point shooting team, and that it locked up the No. 2 seed and home court advantage for at least two rounds of the playoffs — potentially for a second-round rematch against Connecticut — combined to make it a very fitting moment.

It was the sort of win that marks a great team.

And this is a team nobody expected to be great — with the possible exception of the Lynx themselves, as I talked about on Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

Examples of how the Lynx were underestimated, often by a lot, this season:

If you wanted to wager on how many games the Lynx would win before the year started, the number offered by BetMGM was 16.5. Pick the over or the under, in a 40-game season.

They Lynx cruised to 17 wins barely halfway into the season and are close to doubling their over-under number with one game left in the regular season.

if you read preseason predictions, you typically saw the Lynx in that fragile playoff bubble territory, even in a league that lets eight of its 12 teams into the postseason. Respected WNBA writer Michael Voepel at ESPN had the Lynx ninth in a preseason power ranking, concluding by saying: “If everything comes together, the Lynx could make the playoffs again.”

Minnesota Star Tribune WNBA writer Kent Youngblood was higher on the Lynx than most, perhaps persuaded by the confidence he was hearing from the team. I remember him telling me on a preseason podcast that the Lynx very well could contend for a top-four seed. I was incredulous, and I was wrong, too.

“Oftentimes, what you do in training camp shows itself in the regular season, good or bad or ugly,” Lynx coach and president of basketball operations Cheryl Reeve said before the year started. “The good we’ve seen is a reason for optimism.”

It sure was, and it’s not over yet.

Here are four more things to know today:

  • Gophers football writer Randy Johnson also joined me on Wednesday’s podcast to set up Saturday’s huge game against Iowa. It’s hard to imagine the ending being as controversial as it was last season. It’s not hard to imagine a score similar to last year’s 12-10 Gophers win.
  • Tennessee athletics is adding a 10% “talent fee” to all tickets next season to help pay athletes. I’m curious if this will become a national model.
  • The Twins produced a significant win on Tuesday in Cleveland. Tonight’s game with Bailey Ober on the mound will be pivotal as well, particularly after Detroit won on Tuesday to stay 1½ games back in the wild card race.
  • Speaking of the Twins, La Velle E. Neal III and I recorded this week’s Daily Delivery debate. The full conversation will be on Thursday’s podcast, but our segment on who should get the blame if the Twins miss the postseason is up on YouTube.

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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