RandBall: Did Lynx pull off the greatest playoff comeback win in Minnesota sports history?

Midway through the fourth quarter of the WNBA Finals Game 1 on Thursday, it just looked like it wasn’t the Lynx’s night. Another three-pointer from the seemingly couldn’t-miss Liberty gave New York a 81-66 advantage with 5:20 to play.

ESPN’s in-game analytics gave the Lynx a 0.8% chance to win at that moment, and even that seemed optimistic in the context of this stat: WNBA teams before Thursday were a combined 0-183 in playoff history when trailing by at least 15 points with five minutes to play.

What happened in the final five minutes of regulation and overtime felt like an entire series crammed into 10 minutes of game action. The Lynx seemingly won and lost multiple times before ultimately prevailing on a Napheesa Collier turnaround jumper and one more defensive stand. The final score: 95-93 in overtime, as I talked about on a postgame livestream and separately on Friday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

And now a question, just for fun: Was that the greatest playoff comeback in Minnesota sports history? There are some other strong contenders.

The Minneapolis Miracle: Case Keenum’s walk-off sideline heave to Stefon Diggs in the 2017 playoffs might be the single greatest play I’ve ever seen. The play started from the Vikings’ 39 with 10 seconds left and Minnesota trailing 24-23.

The thing is, that play staved off an epic Vikings collapse. They led the Saints 17-0 at halftime at U.S. Bank Stadium before falling apart. The comeback was basically one play — an amazing but fortunate one at that.

Timberwolves over Nuggets, Game 7, 2024 Western Conference semifinals: Denver led 58-38 early in the second half of the deciding game of the conference semifinals. The host Nuggets had a 96.8% chance of winning at that moment. But the Wolves stormed back to claim a 98-90 win, advancing to the conference finals.

That was an amazing win, with bonus points for it coming in an elimination game. But the Lynx faced even longer odds later in the game in a round of the playoffs two levels past what the Wolves faced.

A trio of Wild Game 7 comebacks: The Wild have won three Game 7s in their franchise history, accounting for three of the four times they have won a playoff series. In the 2003 playoffs, they stunned Colorado by scoring the tying goal with less than five minutes left in regulation before Andrew Brunette’s game-winner in overtime of Game 7. In the next round, they were down 2-0 to host Vancouver in Game 7 before storming back to win 4-2 (including three goals in the third). And in the 2014 playoffs they scored the tying goal with 2:27 left in regulation before winning 5-4 in overtime of Game 7.

All three wins were tremendous, but none of the comebacks were as difficult as what we saw Thursday.

1987 World Series Game 6: The Twins were down 3-2 in the series and 5-2 entering the bottom of the fifth inning of a win-or-go-home Game 6 against the Cardinals in the 1987 World Series. But they erupted for four runs in each of their next two times up — a Don Baylor three-run homer and a Kent Hrbek grand slam were the big hits — to win 11-5 before following up with a Game 7 win and their first championship.

That was clutch, to be sure, particularly in an elimination game in the final series. But even down 5-2, Baseball Reference still gave the Twins a 19% chance of winning.

In terms of the most improbable sustained comeback with the highest stakes? The Lynx on Thursday just might have grabbed hold of the top spot in Minnesota pro sports history.