A pessimist would say the common denominators between the Timberwolves and Twins are disappointing seasons that followed playoff breakthroughs, fueled in part at least by payroll concerns.
RandBall: Playoff projections like the Twins and Wolves more than some fans do
Grumbling about the Timberwolves’ inconsistency and Twins’ lack of offseason activity can dominate the narratives. But both teams could be in better shape than some might think.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
February 5, 2025 at 5:54PM
The 2023 Twins won a playoff game and series for the first time in roughly two decades, then cut payroll and faded in 2024. The 2023-24 Wolves made the Western Conference finals, also for the first time in two decades, then dealt Karl-Anthony Towns on the eve of training camp to gain future roster and payroll flexibility.
An optimist would say the common denominator between the Timberwolves and Twins is 57.
Initial FanGraphs projections give the Twins a 57% chance to return to the postseason this year, installing them as slight favorites to win an AL Central Division that lacks a dominant team.
Basketball Reference gives the Timberwolves a 57% chance of finishing as a top-six seed in the Western Conference this season, suggesting that an average simulation will put the Wolves at 46-36 by the end of the year (which would require them to go 19-13 the rest of the way). That would allow the Wolves to avoid the play-in round; factoring in the chance to be a No. 7 or 8 seed, which would mean advancing via the play-in, Basketball Reference gives Minnesota an 86% chance to make the playoffs.
That might seem optimistic, particularly now that we know Julius Randle will miss at least two more weeks with a groin strain — an injury Chris Hine and I talked about on Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast — but sometimes data is a nice antidote (or at least companion) to how we might feel about a team.
The Twins, for instance, have had a dreadfully boring offseason after a dreadful 12-27 finish to their 2024 season. The signing of lefty reliever Danny Coulombe on Tuesday to a modest one-year, $3 million deal was in fact their first major league free agent acquisition of the winter.
It’s easy to forget that they have a top-10 caliber (if healthy) pitching staff in the majors anchored by Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the rotation plus Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax in the bullpen. And for all their flaws last season, they finished 10th in MLB in runs scored.
The Wolves were on the precipice of converting non-believers into half-believers after a recent five-game winning streak, but consecutive home losses (without Randle) to lowly Washington and short-handed Sacramento brought their inconsistency back into focus.
Still, if they can survive a hellacious February schedule that includes three games against Oklahoma City, their last six weeks are comparatively much easier and could coincide with a return to health of Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
If we’re talking about a Wolves playoff run and a hot Twins start in late April, don’t forget all of this.
The team has two home games remaining before a two-week break for the Four Nations Cup.
