If you’re a Twins fan right now, you probably don’t have much faith in fancy playoff probability calculations. FanGraphs, as of Tuesday afternoon, says the Twins still have about an 80% chance of reaching the postseason.
RandBall: The Twins are three up on three teams with 18 to play. Will they make it?
The Twins have been in free-fall for the past three weeks as injuries and underperformance have collided. But they are still favored to make the postseason and they have a favorable schedule.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
September 10, 2024 at 6:44PM
But anyone who has watched for the past few weeks can’t help but think it’s closer to zero.
Somewhere between the dispassionate data and a passionate fan base lies the truth, and that’s what I’m trying to get at right now.
Even after a 6-15 stretch over the last three weeks, the Twins are three games up on three different teams with about three more weeks left to play.
Can they turn their season around — or at least hold on just enough — to make the playoffs? I talked about that on Tuesday’s Daily Delivery podcast, but let’s take a closer look here.
- First, some reasons for optimism: The Twins’ remaining opponents have a combined .481 winning percentage, meaning there are a lot of winnable games left on the schedule. We also should note that the Twins started the year 7-13 and looked like a completely miserable collection before rallying to turn their season around. Between that cool start and this recent slump, they were 63-40. And the three teams chasing them — Boston, Seattle and Detroit, all of them 73-71 entering Tuesday — have not shown much fight. Plus the Twins own season tiebreakers against Seattle and Detroit while leading the season series vs. Boston 2-1.
- However: It feels like the Twins are about one hot week from any of those teams away from being in some real trouble. Of those, I would say Boston is the biggest threat for a few reasons. The biggest one: The Twins still have three games to play at Fenway Park starting Sept. 20, which comes immediately after a four-game series in Cleveland. The Red Sox could overtake the Twins in that series if things keep going south.
- A sneaky potential bonus: The Twins’ season-ending series against Baltimore looks daunting because the Orioles are one of the AL’s best teams. But there’s at least a chance that the Orioles won’t have much to play for in the final three games — either having sewn up the AL East title or, more likely, fallen behind the Yankees by enough while staying ahead of the rest of the wild card pack to the point that they will be resting players and setting their playoff rotation.
So are the Twins going to make it? They need to take advantage of the rest of this home stand against the Angels and Reds. Their rookie starting pitchers need to give them something. The soon-ish return of Carlos Correa would help. Let’s say it’s neither 80% nor zero, but more like a coin flip at this moment.
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