RandBall: Vikings receiver Jordan Addison isn’t producing. Who or what is to blame?

The most urgent question about Vikings receiver Jordan Addison was answered Monday by Addison himself.

He had used a “Free 3″ caption in an Instagram story not long after posting season lows in receptions (two), yards (22) and targets (three) in a Thursday loss to the Rams.

So, um, what exactly did that mean? Was he unhappy?

“That’s just my little saying,” Addison told reporters in the Vikings locker room, adding that he first used it in 2020. “People are just trying to make something out of anything.”

So if we can take him at his word, especially when he added that “I’m straight, I’m good,” when asked about his role in the offense, the next question is more complicated:

Why exactly has his production dropped? He caught 70 passes, including 10 touchdowns, in a breakout rookie season. This year he has just 14 grabs (on 23 targets) and one receiving TD.

The answer, not surprisingly, is nuanced — as Minnesota Star Tribune Vikings writer Andrew Krammer and I talked about on Tuesday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

Here are some things to consider:

The Justin Jefferson factor: When Jefferson is healthy, he commands an outsized share of attention from both the Vikings’ offense and opposing defenses. The coverages Jefferson faces should dictate that other pass catchers (like Addison) are open, but he is also so good that throwing his way in a double-team is often a smart move.

The upshot is that if we compare Addison’s opportunities this year to the 10 games he played last season with Jefferson (who missed seven games with an injury) we don’t find a huge disparity. Addison had 35 catches on 55 targets in those 10 games with Jefferson last season, an average of 3.5 and 5.5 per game. This year, Addison has played 4.5 games — missing most of the second half against the Giants and two more games after that. In those 4.5 games, he is averaging 3.1 catches and 5.1 targets.

Philosophical change: There are also fewer targets, period, to go around with the Vikings. They are passing on 53.4% of offensive plays (20th in the NFL) after throwing 63.3% of the time last season (No. 3 in the league). Plus they rank dead last in the NFL in offensive plays per game this season (56.7) after being No. 16 last season with 63 plays per game.

Add it up: They’re attempting 27.1 passes per game this season; last season they threw it 37.1 times, a full 10 more pass attempts per game. There’s just less volume to go around for everyone.

The Sam Darnold factor: Krammer said he noticed QB Kirk Cousins develop a quick rapport with Addison in training camp in 2023. There were numerous stories about new QB Sam Darnold gaining chemistry with Jefferson. But Darnold and Addison have been slower to develop that connection.

“I haven’t seen that this year with Sam Darnold. I haven’t seen that confidence,” Krammer said. “The only time we’re seeing Addison catch passes from Sam Darnold seems to be these out routes along the sideline where there’s just enough window to get the ball in there and it’s not really contested at all.”

Where Addison can improve: He was great on yards after the catch last season, averaging 1.4 yards above expected according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This year, he’s 0.8 yards below expected on yards after the catch. Addison’s focus has drifted at times this season. He committed two costly pre-snap penalties against the Lions. In the same close loss, he was bullied on the line of scrimmage on a key third down in the fourth quarter and ended up disrupting the throwing lane from Darnold to Jefferson. Gaining strength and getting off the line of scrimmage cleaner will help him get open more quickly.

What it all means: The bigger picture shows that I was hasty when I vented after the Rams game that Addison has been awful this season. For multiple reasons, he’s getting fewer opportunities, particularly in catch-and-run situations, even though his average separation from the nearest defender is virtually unchanged from a year ago.

But the pass-catching group is only getting more crowded with the anticipated return of T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings don’t figure to suddenly have Darnold air it out 40 times a game, so everyone will have to make the most of their opportunities.

That means 3 will have to get as free as possible in front of or behind the defense in order to get his share.