Moscow's meddling in Western elections likely won't stop with its interference in America's presidential campaign. Indeed, with European elections of considerable geopolitical consequence slated later this year, they'll probably accelerate.
The threat is particularly acute in Germany and France, where right-wing candidates considered more Kremlin-friendly are advancing. Moscow is motivated to seek upheavals in Berlin and Paris because Germany and France have led European Union cohesion on sanctions against Russia for its illegal annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine.
The stakes are stark for the West, which needs to remain unified, said Kirsti Kauppi, Finland's ambassador to the U.S. "It's important that the U.S. and Europe see eye-to-eye on Russia," Kauppi said in an interview after speaking at a Global Minnesota event last week. "There has to be differences in how we act, but it's very important we agree on the fundamentals."
The fundamentals on how Russia acts are quite clear. Moscow's "arsenal of active measures is a way of influencing countries and politics and world events that don't rely on conventional military forces but uses more underhanded, more hidden mechanisms and tools to influence elections and a narrative around special events," said Alina Polyakova, deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council.
The Kremlin's "tool kit of influence" includes hacking, disinformation, political influence and economic pressure, particularly on energy dependent eastern and central European nations, said Polyakova, who added that the use of disinformation has expanded dramatically in recent years, and can be seen in the spread of fake news, which "before it was the term-du-jour we just called propaganda."
Germany is alert to Russia's intentions, said Céline-Agathe Caro, a senior policy analyst for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. "There is clearly a fear of election obstruction. … The German government has indications that Russia is trying to destabilize German society, to spread uncertainty, and also strengthen extremist groups that are more pro-Russian than the mainstream parties," Caro said.
These extremist groups and other nationalist movements betray an intellectual inconsistency by stressing national sovereignty yet antithetically acquiescing to foreign interference in their internal affairs.
And there may be more at play. "To me that signals that there is something about the connection between these pro-Russian, far-right leaders and political parties and the Kremlin," said Polyakova
