I was distressed to read Kevin Roche's cynical commentary ("Fall surge peaked before Walz order," Opinion Exchange, Dec. 2) which posits that our state government made the same assumption-laden calculations that Roche did and hid them from us in order to time "bizarre" executive orders optimally to "take credit" for the predicted drop in infections (which, Roche has convinced himself, will happen independent of executive order).
Last week our outgoing president made a rare appearance just to make sure that President-elect Joe Biden would not "take credit" for "the vaccines."
This isn't about credit! The one sure thing is that if cases decline, we won't be certain of what caused that decline. For now, we need to buckle down and listen to the people who at least have an inkling of what they're talking about. I believe our state government is there. Its recommendations are certainly debatable, but they are made with our (not Gov. Tim Walz's) welfare in mind. Let's let our epidemiologists do the epidemiology.
Frank Shaw, Roseville
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I agree with most of Roche's analysis of COVID cases and that there was already a decrease in the rising percentage of new cases before Walz's (economically painful) restrictions went into effect. This would have come about because of the public's awareness of rising cases (thank you, news media!) and individuals deciding to pull back from possible exposure (some of us choose and are able to be responsible).
But where I part ways with Roche's assessment is in the idea that Walz's order was unnecessary. The natural consequence of a decline in cases would be a relaxation by the public of COVID avoidance strategies, just as we are entering the holiday season. There would be a very large surge by the middle of December, likely worse than the November surge, and almost certainly overwhelming pressure on hospital systems over Christmas holidays, with rationing of ICU beds.
Although small private gatherings have not been a major source of transmission during low infection rates, I believe they were prohibited because of the potential impact of almost everyone participating in the Thanksgiving holiday. At the same time, the prohibition would not have much of an economic impact.
By placing these restrictions for a full month, hopefully the prevalence of COVID in the community will be driven low enough to avoid having a disastrous January after the inevitable post Christmas surge, especially with vaccines on the near horizon.