Republicans look to court new voters, reshape electorate to close gap in battleground Minnesota

As chairman of the Benton County Republican Party, Dan Johnson is responsible for rallying support for President Donald Trump in a GOP stronghold the president won by a wide margin in 2016. One of his biggest challenges of late, he says, is keeping up with high demand for pro-Trump lawn signs. But it's not just longtime activists and party loyalists putting in requests.

"I know quite a few people who typically aren't involved in politics that are very involved in politics right now and very into Trump," said Johnson, an alternate delegate for the president at this week's Republican National Convention. "Those people are excited."

Expanding the base beyond rank-and-file Republicans is a key component of the Trump campaign's re-election strategy in key battlegrounds such as Minnesota, a state the president has vowed to flip after a narrow 2016 loss. In order to close the gap, the president's campaign aims to inspire high turnout among his most fervent GOP base while making deeper inroads among other potentially influential voting blocs, including rural Democrats, suburban-dwellers and white, working-class voters.

Minnesota Republican Party Chairwoman Jennifer Carnahan said the party is targeting a broad cross-section of the electorate she describes as "every voter that's not a hard Democrat." That path to victory, she said, includes turning out 100,000 Trump supporters who stayed home in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats swept all statewide races and won back the Minnesota House. It also includes broadening Trump's appeal among Asian-American voters in the Twin Cities. In addition to the suburbs, Carnahan sees potential for growing the GOP's vote in three Greater Minnesota congressional districts the president won in 2016.

"It's every corner of the state," she said. "We're going to go find more votes in those areas, whether it's with the farmers, the laborers, the folks up on the Iron Range."

That effort to build a winning coalition in Minnesota is on display at the Republican National Convention this week. In addition to videos from a number of state candidates, Tuesday's nationally televised convention program was set to feature remarks from Eveleth Mayor Robert Vlaisavljevich, a longtime Democrat who has praised the president's support of the mining industry. Wednesday's lineup includes Scott Dane, the executive director of an association representing the logging and timber industries.

Strategists say both picks are meant to show Trump's support for blue-collar workers and disillusioned Democrats. The themes and profiles of the convention speakers could also help court another must-win group for Trump: non-college educated white men.

Polling, including in Minnesota, shows the president performing better among men than women. His approval rating among men statewide climbed 6 percentage points between February and May, according to a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll. Support among women, including in the suburbs, dipped in the same period.

The Minnesota DFL estimates that 250,000 white male voters without college degrees stayed home in 2016. Capturing even a fraction of those eligible voters could change the electorate and tip the scales for the GOP.

"That is a big part of their base," said DFL Party Chairman Ken Martin. "And they know that if they get a lot of them registered, mobilized and turn out they can … presumably flip the state."

David Schultz, a Hamline University professor who wrote a book on swing states, said Trump "has to prime those white non-college educated men to turn out to vote in dramatically higher percentages than last time" if he wants to win the state. A focus on his core platform could help, Schultz said.

"Traditional themes of patriotism and so forth, all of those work," he said. "But I think he has to hit harder at those themes he worked at from four years ago: protectionism, economic nationalism, trade war with China, those are the themes that seem to resonate."

Trump's need to attract new or crossover voters comes down to math. Although he lost the state by fewer than 45,000 votes in 2016 — the closest margin since 1984 — Trump won roughly the same number of votes as Mitt Romney did in 2012, when former President Barack Obama carried the state by 7 percentage points.

Given that spread, high enthusiasm among his base and other friendly voter groups is not likely to be enough to close the gap if Democrats turn out in higher numbers than 2016, Schultz said.

Winning over more college-educated suburban swing voters — or hoping they stay home instead of casting a ballot for the Democrats — is also seen as essential for a win. Polls have shown the president struggling with that slice of the electorate, especially among women.

But the campaign is targeting those voters, too. A hot pink Women for Trump tour bus carrying high-profile female staffers made several stops across the state last week, drawing crowds in Eagan and Wayzata.

Wednesday's televised speaking lineup for the RNC includes Second Lady Karen Pence, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, one of the youngest women in Congress and a leading advocate for electing more GOP women to office. Carnahan said polls and pundits underestimate the president's strength with women in the greater Twin Cities metro.

"People make the mistake of assuming the suburban woman voter is not going to be with the president," she said. "I don't think that's true at all."

Torey Van Oot • 651-925-5049