Respond cautiously to Iran-backed attacks

Opinion editor’s note: Editorials represent the opinions of the Star Tribune Editorial Board, which operates independently from the newsroom.

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An apparent military mix-up resulted in a drone attack at a remote U.S. outpost in Jordan on Sunday that killed three American service personnel and wounded dozens more. The assault was just the latest from Iranian-backed militias sowing terror from Tehran-influenced nations including Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

In a statement, President Joe Biden rightly called the assault “despicable and wholly unjust.” He can’t call them unexpected, however, as Iranian proxies have launched about 160 attacks against U.S. military targets across the region since the Israel-Hamas war, which started in response to the Oct. 7 terror attacks that killed about 1,200 Israelis.

Biden pledged to “hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing.” The timing, and in particular the manner, will be consequential. First, Biden must not repeat former President Barack Obama’s mistake of backing off a chemical-weapons “red line” he laid down regarding Syria; that flinch only invited more aggression from the homicidal regime in Damascus. But Biden should be prudent and heed the advice that he gave Israel when he visited just days after the Hamas terror attack to not get caught up in a 9/11-era spiral that spills into a wider war.

And, just as important, the U.S. must not set back the chance to help end, or at least suspend, the war raging in Gaza that has killed over 26,000, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health. Reports of diplomatic progress are encouraging: Top envoys from the U.S., Israel, Egypt and Qatar are reportedly negotiating an accord that would stop Israel’s campaign for around six weeks and release some Israeli hostages in exchange for some Palestinian prisoners.

Significantly, there are also reportedly ongoing efforts to broker a broader regional deal that would finally, rightly, set the conditions for a Palestinian state — run not by Hamas, but by a reformed Palestinian Authority — in exchange for Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognizing Israel. That’s a prospect staunchly opposed by Iran and Hamas, let alone Iranian-backed Hezbollah, which could still yet create a two-front war for Israel along its border with Lebanon.

The theocracy in Tehran isn’t just a regional menace, but a global one, as it exports drone and other armaments to Russia that are used to attack Ukrainians, soldier and civilian alike. It’s also supplied weaponry to Houthi militants in Yemen that has been deployed against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, directly endangering lives and indirectly endangering the global economy by necessitating a rerouting of vessels, which adds time and cost that is passed on to already stressed consumers. The administration has responded, repeatedly, to those attacks, but the Houthis have not been deterred.

This has inevitably led to calls to directly attack Iranian assets, including from some key congressional Republicans. While Biden should not be goaded into imprudent action, there should also be no illusion regarding Iran. Indeed, under-responding has its own set of risks, too, including more, and more lethal, attacks on U.S. personnel and interests.

Iran “could further unleash some of their proxies, and especially with Hezbollah, which has massive [military] capacity that they’re not using, so there could be an Iranian escalation that would really be the next step toward throwing the region into a chaotic regional war which would affect the global economy,” Thomas Hanson, diplomat-in-residence at the University of Minnesota Duluth, told an editorial writer.

Hanson, a former Foreign Service officer who is now chair of the Committee on Foreign Relations Minnesota, added that while it’s apparent that many of the militias are affiliated with Iran, it’s less certain if they are all directly commanded by them. “The empowerment by Iran is clear,” Hanson said. “The agency of Iran in some of these specific attacks is less clear.”

Overall, the “reality is that the Iranians are doing everything they can to make this a regional conflict,” Jon Olson, a retired U.S. Navy commander and career intelligence officer who is an adjunct instructor at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School as well as Carleton College, told an editorial writer. “The dynamic here is, what’s the least bad choice the administration can make in this situation that punishes Iran?”

The answer to that crucial question may have a profound impact on the war in Gaza and could affect the broader conflict between Iran and the U.S. and its regional allies. So while now is the time for Biden to be resolute, it is never the time for him or any commander in chief to be reckless.